Opinion poll 2016: BJP alliance to win Assam with 78 seats, says ABP News-Nielsen survey

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Guwahati, March 29: An opinion poll conducted by ABP News-AC Nielsen for the two-phase Assam Assembly elections starting April 4 showed the BJP coming to power in the northeastern state for the first time.

According to the survey, the saffron party's alliance, which comprises the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People's Front (BPF), may win 78 out of 126 seats in the Assembly. The ruling Congress, on the other hand, may win just 36 seats and lose power after 15 years.


The AIUDF led by Badruddin Ajmal may get 10 seats while others may get two.

In terms of vote-share, the BJP alliance may get 44 per cent which is 10 per cent more than that of 2011 while the Congress's vote-share may come down to 34 from 39.6. The AIUDF's vote-share is also expected to decrease by nearly 1.5 per cent.

The 2011, the BJP, AGP and BPF's total tally was just 27 while the Congress won 78 seats. The AIUDF won 18 seats.

If the BJP alliance wins, Union minister Sarbananda Sonowal, who has been projected as the chief ministerial candidate by the BJP, will take over from Tarun Gogoi, the incumbent CM.

Other findings of the survey said:

  • More preferred as CM: 39% backed Gogoi while 29% wanted Sonowal
  • How will you rate CM Tarun Gogo's work? 5% said very good, 35% said good, 33% said average, 22% said bad, 4% said very bad
  • What is the BJP's main poll plank in this election? 44% said development, 24% said Hindutva, 14% said both
  • Will the Bangladeshi infiltrators issue impact Assam polls? 52% said yes, 33% said no, 15% said don't know
  • Which govt at the Centre did more work for Assam? 40% said Modi govt, 41% said Manmohan Singh govt, 6% said both

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