When Delhi goes to polls in 2015, the BJP may strike gold in the national capital as the party is expecting Narendra Modi wave to do the magic here also. And as per the ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll, BJP is likely to get an absolute majority in the upcoming Delhi assembly polls.
According to the opinion poll, riding high on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity, BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party and may get 45 seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly in the upcoming polls.
What has the survey predicted?
The opinion poll which was conducted by ABP News-Nielsen in 35 assembly constituencies with 6,409 respondents from 4th December, 2014 to 8th December, 2014 has predicted, "There is a bit change but ‘Modi magic' continued in the national capital which will help the BJP to get 45 seats in Delhi if elections held today while AAP will win 17 seats."
In the last Assembly elections in Delhi also BJP had emerged as the single largest party by winning 31 seats. In those elections, AAP won with 28 seats and the Congress stood at third by winning only 8 seats.
According to the opinion poll, the BJP is likely to get 38 per cent vote share as against AAP's 27 per cent, while Congress' vote share was 22 per cent.
In comparison with a similar survey conducted in November, the BJP's vote share has dropped by 1 per cent and also lost a seat. The party was getting 46 seats in the previous opinion poll, whereas Congress' condition has improved from the previous poll survey.
BJP having an upper hand
As per the opinion poll, around half of the respondents feel that BJP would form the government in the upcoming elections in Delhi and around 38 per cent feel that Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party should form the government in Delhi.
As per the opinion poll, Modi is the most popular leader in Delhi with 58 per cent votes while 33 per cent respondents voted for Arvind Kejriwal and around seven per cent voted for Rahul Gandhi.
Half of the respondents voiced their support for BJP while 38 percent supported AAP to form government in the national capital.
Surprisingly, despite Arvind Kejriwal's 49 days government in Delhi, as per the survey, an overall level majority (65%) of the respondents have rated the performance of Arvind Kejriwal government as 'Good' and 'Very Good'.
But when it came to Prime Minister Narendra Modi government, 74% of respondents rated its performance at the Centre as 'Good/Very good'.
But even from those who supported BJP, majority (72%) of respondents condemn the statement made by Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti. Even those intending to vote for BJP (69%) condemn the statement made by her. But very few think that it will impact the Saffron party's prospects in the polls.
Challenges for the BJP
As per the opinion poll, two thirds of the respondents (67%) agreed that the law and order has deteriorated in the national capital. Also, 83% of the respondents feel that Delhi should be given full statehood.
Among big challenges for BJP in the capital, law and order, sanitation are a few. When people were asked about the biggest problems in Delhi, they said inflation, sanitation, drinking water and unemployment are biggest issues being faced by them. Moreover, the Narendra Modi government has not yet achieved massive success on this front as the recent incident of Uber rape case has tarnished the government's image and raised many questions over government's seriousness on the issue.
Sanitation is a bigger issue in urban areas whereas law and order and transport problems matter more in rural areas, opinion poll said.
Is it curtains down for Congress?
There are no good days for the Congress despite several attempts of making a comeback by State leaders. The party has yet again failed to gain its lost ground in the State which was once considered its bastion.
The pre-poll survey predicted further decimation of the party which ruled the city for 15 years. The survey predicted Congress' tally to be 7 in the 70-seat House in Delhi.
Bad news for AAP
AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal might have been seeking apologies from the people of Delhi and banking upon his 49-day rule in Delhi, but it seems that the party's image has not really improved in the minds of the voters. They have distanced themselves from AAP for running away.
But surprisingly, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal is the most preferred CM candidate with 43% of respondents supporting him. Whereas BJP's Harshvardhan bagged second position with 39% votes.
Hence, it seems Modi effect is doing the trick for the BJP in Delhi as well, but the party will have to keep itself away from controversies as the party has faced embarrassments in the recent past, thanks to its leaders.