25 years of togetherness ends: Who is better placed Modi-led BJP or Uddhav's Shiv Sena?

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Uddhav thackeray
After days of suspense and uncertainties, finally alliance between Bhartiya Janta Party and Shiv Sena came to an end on Thursday. Both are putting onus on each other and holding others responsible for pulling the plug after remaining together for long 25 years.

But fact of the matter is the ego between two took toll on partnership . According to unconfirmed reports all issues were resolved including seat distributions, but tussle over only one seat Bhusawal assembly constituency acted as final straw that broke the back of the BJP-Sena electoral camel.

Stake high now for Uddhav and his brand of politics

Now, big question is will it be an easy ride for Uddhav Thackeray led Shiv Sena to sustain. Whether his brinkmanship be able to make or mar the prospect of Shiv Sena only time will tell, but one thing is clear that to regain popular mandate of Marathi people he will have to resort to old politics of father Balasaheb.

Let's analyse transformation of Uddhav's brand of politics since he took rein of party in 2003 as working president. Soon after that big charismatic leader Narayan Rane along with some MLAs had left the party on the matter of leadership issue.

That came close on the heels of Sanjay Nirupam's exit who jumped the ship and joined Congress in 2004. Both these leaders were considered a big players having much support base. Earlier in 1991, Chhagan Bhujbal had also left the party. With the exit of all these big leaders, Shiv Sena's support base got eroded. All support base weaned way by these stalwarts-with Bhujbal OBC vote bank gone then Nirupam took away North Indian supporters.

Uddhav lacks aggression of Balasaheb

Final nail in Shiv Sena's coffin came from his own cousin brother Raj Thackeray who formed new party MNS in 2006. Thereafter because of his anti-north Indian plank, he started making inroad Sena's core base group Marathi Manus.

Shiv Sena was left high and dry. The BJP-SS came to power first in Maharashtra in 1996 and that also not because of Marathi Manus plank, but tough and aggressive Hindutva agenda pushed them to power. After Uddhav taking rein of the party, Sena's electroral prospect continue to move downhill. The experts believe that he lacks his father's killer instinct and brash, aggressive type politics.

BJP-SS combine came to power because of anti-Congress mood in 1996. And that was what worked in their favour in 2014 Lok Sabha election. 18 seats which Sena got in Lok Sabha not because it was strong in Maharashtra, but it was owed to Modi's magic.

Shiv Sena's performance in elections

In Lok Sabha election
year seats
1989 1
1991 4
1996 15
1998 6
1999 15
2004 12
2009 11
2014 18

In Assembly
year seats
1990 52
1995 73
1999 69
2004 62
2009 45

BJP better placed than Sena

Now after both parties going their separate ways, it will be really tough ride for splintered Shiv Sena. Though, it's former alliance partner BJP will also face the consequence, but then they are in better position and well equipped to face the situation unlike Sena.

Modi wave though recently has not been lucky and that proved from recent debacle in by-polls. But then saffron party has not opened its cards completely. Sources say that NCP and MNS may come along with BJP.

So it's better placed. Only time will tell what will be the repercussion of this churning in Maha politics, but this twist and turns have definitely made coming State assembly election interesting.

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