Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026: DMK, AIADMK or TVK - Who Will Emerge Victorious? P-Marq Survey Out

The latest exit poll conducted by P-Marq indicates a clear advantage for the DMK-led alliance in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, projecting a comfortable majority in the 234-member House.

According to the survey, the DMK alliance is expected to secure between 125 and 145 seats, placing it well above the majority mark. In contrast, the AIADMK-led alliance is projected to win between 65 and 85 seats, suggesting a significant gap between the two major political fronts.

The projections for other players in the fray remain modest. Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which has attracted attention as a relatively new entrant, is estimated to win between 16 and 26 seats in one version of the survey, though another estimate from the same poll places it much lower, at just one to six seats.

Meanwhile, other parties and independents are expected to secure a marginal share, ranging from one to six seats overall.

The Tamil Nadu Assembly election saw a largely bipolar contest between two major alliances. On one side was the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), comprising key partners such as the Indian National Congress, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).

On the other side stood the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led in the state by the AIADMK, with support from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). The contest between these alliances defined much of the electoral narrative, with both sides campaigning intensively across the state.

Voter turnout across Tamil Nadu reflected strong public engagement in the electoral process. Several districts recorded notably high participation rates, with Karur leading at 89.32 percent. Salem followed with 88.02 percent, while Erode and Dharmapuri reported 87.59 percent and 87.28 percent, respectively.

Tiruppur also saw a high turnout of 86.33 percent. Other districts such as Ariyalur (83.09 percent), Tiruchirappalli (82.76 percent), and Chennai (81.34 percent) demonstrated robust participation, including in urban and semi-urban areas. Meanwhile, Madurai and Thoothukudi recorded comparatively lower, yet still substantial, turnout figures of 77.89 percent and 77.56 percent.

According to data released by the Election Commission of India, the overall voter turnout across the state stood at 82.24 percent as of 5 pm on April 23. Polling was conducted across all 234 Assembly constituencies and concluded smoothly at 6 pm the same day.

Now, the attention has shifted to the counting process, which is scheduled to take place on May 4. The final results will determine whether the exit poll projections hold true and will ultimately decide the political direction of Tamil Nadu for the coming term.