Tamil Nadu Elections: How Many Seats Will BJP & AIADMK Contest, This Time?

With the clock ticking down to the start of nominations for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, seat-sharing negotiations within the AIADMK-led NDA alliance have reached a final stage. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is poised to contest the lion's share of constituencies, PTI reported citing sources.

At the centre of these discussions is party general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, whose recent visit to New Delhi on March 19 is believed to have helped finalise the broad contours of the alliance formula. The AIADMK is likely to contest between 160 and 170 of the state's 234 Assembly seats, a strategic move designed to maximise its chances of independently crossing the majority mark.

The calculation is straightforward. In a House that requires 118 seats for a simple majority, the AIADMK leadership appears keen to avoid overdependence on allies. Palaniswami, who is leading the NDA bloc in Tamil Nadu and is projected as its chief ministerial candidate, has already set an ambitious target of winning over 200 seats, an indication of the party's aggressive electoral pitch this time.

For its allies, the seat allocation reflects both expansion and recalibration. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to see a notable increase in its share, likely contesting around 30 seats, about 10 more than it did in the 2021 elections. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), led by Anbumani Ramadoss, is likely to be allotted approximately 17 constituencies, as per the report.

Meanwhile, newer entrants to the alliance are also being accommodated. The Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), headed by T T V Dhinakaran, could be given around nine seats. The Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), led by former Union minister G K Vasan, is expected to contest a smaller number-around three seats. Sources add that several smaller allies may contest on either the AIADMK's iconic "Two Leaves" symbol or the BJP's "Lotus," depending on local arrangements.

The current negotiations also reflect lessons learned from the 2021 Assembly elections. Back then, the AIADMK contested 179 seats but managed to win only 66, even though it remained the largest party within the NDA alliance in the state. The BJP, which contested 20 seats, secured four victories, while the PMK won five out of the 23 seats it contested. Overall, the alliance could muster only 75 seats, falling significantly short against the sweeping victory of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led front.

This time, the AIADMK appears determined to recalibrate its approach-balancing alliance commitments with a stronger independent presence. The emphasis on contesting a higher number of seats signals a shift towards reclaiming political ground and reducing reliance on partners.

The Tamil Nadu election is part of a larger electoral cycle across India. While states like Assam and Kerala, along with the Union Territory of Puducherry, are set to vote on April 9, Tamil Nadu will go to the polls on April 23. Meanwhile, West Bengal will witness a two-phase election on April 23 and April 29. The results for all these elections are scheduled to be declared on May 4.

As the nomination window approaches, all eyes are now on how the final seat-sharing formula shapes up-and whether the AIADMK's strategy will pay off in a fiercely contested political landscape.