If Annamalai's BJP, Vijay’s TVK Join Hands, DMK May Be Defeated In Tamil Nadu Elections, Says Opinion Poll

Tamil Nadu Elections Survey: As Tamil Nadu preparing slowly for the 2026 assembly elections, the question on many minds is whether the ruling DMK can be unseated. With the BJP registering its best-ever vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, can the saffron party mount a serious challenge? And what role will actor-turned-politician Thalapathy Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) play in shaping the state's political future?

According to the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll, the DMK-Congress alliance remains in a pole position, with predictions favouring their victory if elections were held today. The survey, conducted from January 2 to February 9, 2025, covered 125,123 individuals across all Lok Sabha segments and combined fresh interviews with long-term tracking data.

The Vote Share Battle

The survey indicates that the opposition INDIA bloc is set to increase its vote share by 5 percentage points, reaching 52%. Meanwhile, the BJP, which secured 18% in the 2024 general elections, is expected to rise slightly to 21%. The AIADMK, which was unseated by the DMK in 2021, is projected to witness a decline from 23% to 20%.

Will Forging Alliance With TVK & AIADMK Help BJP To Defeat DMK?

Despite its rise in its vote share, the BJP still faces an uphill battle in Tamil Nadu, where it has historically struggled to gain a foothold. However, analysts believe that an alliance with AIADMK and Vijay's TVK could be a game-changer.

Political strategist Rajat Sethi pointed out that the BJP, under the leadership of K Annamalai, has reached a critical milestone with 20% vote share. However, surpassing this threshold and posing a real challenge to the DMK remains a formidable task. said "The BJP, with Annamalai's leadership, has reached that significant milestone of 20%. To move past that and challenge the DMK will be critical for the BJP," India Today quoted him as saying.

Vijay - The X-Factor?

A major new entrant in Tamil Nadu politics is actor Thalapathy Vijay, whose party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, is making waves despite being a fresh face in the electoral landscape. CVoter founder-director Yashwant Deshmukh highlighted Vijay as an emerging force, noting that while his influence at the national level remains limited, his support at the assembly level is trending between 10-15% week on week.

"Vijay is becoming an important player on the ground despite not much traction at the national level. A vertical split of opposition votes is denting the NDA," he stated.

He continued, "At the national level, his name doesn't really move in here but in our tracker ask the same question to the respondents on the assembly level voting Vijay name is trending anywhere between 10-15% week on week. He is becoming an important player on ground."

Will the BJP manage to build a strong coalition and challenge the DMK's dominance? And will Vijay's entry redefine the state's political dynamics? The next few months will be crucial in shaping the future of Tamil Nadu politics.