DMK-AIADMK To Secure 65% Of Votes In Tamil Nadu Polls 2026: What About Annamalai-Led BJP, Vijay's TVK?

As the political landscape in Tamil Nadu heats up ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, veteran journalist Tharasu Shyam has shared his views on the shifting dynamics, particularly regarding the alliances between key parties like the AIADMK and DMK, and the role of actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

According to Shyam, in the upcoming elections, the AIADMK and DMK alliance is poised to secure around 65% of the votes, with the remaining share divided among other smaller parties. This prediction has sparked discussions across political circles, especially given the current state of opposition politics in Tamil Nadu.

Vijay's Influence

Despite still being a relatively new player in the political arena, Vijay has been actively making waves since his party's recent conference. Even after weeks after the event, there is still much buzz surrounding his rally and potential alliances. With the AIADMK facing criticism for failing to function as a robust opposition party and BJP remaining low-key in Tamil Nadu politics since Annamalai's trip to London, Vijay has begun to position himself strategically, engaging with the AIADMK alliance to solidify his presence in the state's political discourse.

Shyam notes that, much like MGR's approach when he formed his own party and entered alliances differently in the 1977 Lok Sabha elections compared to the Assembly elections, Vijay's approach will likely evolve over time. While his film career gives him a natural sense of confidence, he will learn valuable lessons in political strategy as he faces the electorate for the first time in an election.

AIADMK and TVK Alliance

The recent talks surrounding the potential AIADMK-TVK alliance have further fueled speculation. Edappadi K Palaniswami, AIADMK's leader, has clarified that there will be no alliance with BJP, but has remained tight-lipped about Vijay's political future. This has prompted discussions in the public domain, with TVK's General Secretary Bussy Anand issuing a statement, suggesting that any delay in addressing these talks could harm the party's reputation.

AIADMK, which Shyam estimates holds about 20% of the vote share, and the DMK-led alliance, which has 30%, could together secure up to 60% of the votes in the upcoming assembly polls, leaving other parties to fight over the remaining 40%. However, BJP's alliance might lose a substantial portion of its vote share, with anti-BJP sentiments accounting for 15% and an additional 25% potentially going to smaller parties.

Vijay's Prospects

In terms of Vijay's prospects, Shyam argues that he will not ally with the BJP. Instead, his party may form an alliance with smaller parties, which could yield a 10-12% vote share. While this is a significant boost, it may not be enough to secure a dominant position. Shyam suggests that Vijay's political strategy will likely evolve based on the results of the first election, allowing him to adjust his approach as needed.

The Path Forward

Shyam also discusses the possibility that if AIADMK chooses to ally with smaller parties, it could alter the dynamics. Edappadi's refusal to commit to an alliance with BJP, while keeping quiet about Vijay, continues to spark intrigue. For now, the statement released by TVK has helped solidify the party's position, though it hasn't significantly affected AIADMK's prospects.

In short, the 2026 Assembly elections are shaping up to be a high-stakes contest in Tamil Nadu, with the AIADMK and DMK alliance likely to dominate. However, the role of smaller parties, including Vijay's, will be crucial in determining the final outcome. As the political landscape continues to evolve, one thing is clear-Tamil Nadu's electoral drama is far from over.