Karnataka Congress Faces Crushing Blow: BJP Set to Double Its Seats As Per Latest Survey

In just two years since the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections, the political winds in the state have dramatically shifted. A state that once gave the Congress party a mandate is now overwhelmingly rejecting it. The People's Pulse - Codemo Survey lays bare this growing discontent across demographics, communities, and regions-exposing the deep failures of the Congress government and the rising wave of support for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Seat Share Projection: From Congress Rule to BJP Resurgence

In a dramatic reversal from the 2023 election results, the survey reveals a potential doubling of BJP's seat tally if elections were held today. This seismic shift is a direct consequence of the Congress government's two years of broken promises, skyrocketing prices, and governance failures. Congress's grace period is over - and the patience of Kannadigas has worn dangerously thin.

Vote Share: BJP Overtakes Congress Amidst Rising Discontent

The BJP is now poised to completely overturn the 2023 vote share, with a strong swing in its favour. Voters, deceived by Congress's grandstanding on guarantees, now see through the gimmicks. With guarantees either undelivered or selectively implemented, people are looking back to the BJP for development, stability, and integrity.

Misgovernance Wrapped in Guarantees

The Congress party's so-called "guarantees" were nothing more than pre-election gimmicks. Schemes like Gruha Lakshmi, Yuva Nidhi, and Shakti have not only failed in execution but have actively harmed the state's economy.

Price hikes in electricity, water, milk, and food have further shredded household budgets. The public, particularly the working middle class and youth, now see through this facade. Congress promised relief but delivered debt and disillusionment.

Voters Are Turning Away from Congress

According to the survey, over 52% of men and 49% of women are turning their backs on the Congress party

First-time voters have been severely let down by the Congress. The Yuva Nidhi scheme, designed to support unemployed youth, remains largely undelivered. A massive 56% of youth voters aged 18-25 now back the BJP, recognizing that only a development-first agenda - not freebies - can secure their future.

The working class is bearing the brunt of Congress's failed economics. Budget cuts in infrastructure, combined with inflation, have wrecked household finances. Survey findings show that 48.6% of the 26-35 age group and 50% of the 35-50 group have turned against Congress, fed up with its poor planning and gimmick-based governance.

Rural Karnataka, traditionally seen as Congress turf, now sees over 52% support for the BJP, smashing the myth of BJP being an urban-centric party.

The PM Factor: Modi Mania Unstoppable in Karnataka

The Congress party's biggest embarrassment is the resounding preference for Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the people's leader-even among Congress's own voter base. Among BJP supporters, a commanding 73.9% back Modi as their preferred PM, with 17% favoring Yogi Adityanath and negligible support for Rahul Gandhi or Mallikarjun Kharge. Interestingly, even within the Congress (INC) voter base, 37.8% prefer Modi over their own leaders, while only 40.6% support Rahul Gandhi and a mere 5% back Kharge. Among JD(S) voters, 73.2% favor Modi, with Rahul Gandhi trailing far behind at 5.8% and Kharge at just 0.6%.

Also, Communities led by Congress stalwarts-Kurubas (Siddaramaiah) and Vokkaligas (D.K. Shivakumar)-have also turned towards Modi.

Modi enjoys overwhelming support from Vishwakarmas (78.2%), Nayaks/Naiks (74.6%), Valmikis (72.1%), Marathas (71.2%), and Lingayats (69.8%), with massive margins ranging from 50% to nearly 70%. Even among Kurubas (58%) and Madigas (63.5%)-traditionally closer to Congress-Modi leads decisively. Rahul Gandhi trails far behind across the board, never crossing 19% in any sub-group, while Mallikarjun Kharge sees minimal traction even among SC groups like Adi Karnataka (14.6%) and Madar (9.6%). Yogi Adityanath garners modest secondary support in a few groups but remains distant. This data highlights not only Modi's pan-caste appeal but also Congress's crumbling hold on its once-loyal social coalitions, with margins of Modi's lead exceeding 60% in multiple key communities, such as Nayaks and Vishwakarmas.

Hindus, Christians, and the Collapse of Congress's Vote Bank Politics

The Congress's appeasement politics are backfiring. While the party continues to selectively dole out benefits to a particular vote bank, both Hindus and Christians are gravitating towards the BJP. The self-reliant Hindu middle class and even sections of the Christian community now view BJP as the only path to real progress-rejecting Congress's divisive politics and empty populism.

Professionals, Farmers, and Youth Put Their Faith in BJP

Notably, the BJP also dominates among postgraduates, capturing 60.4% of the vote, which underscores its strong connection with the educated elite. Among farmers-an essential voter base-the party leads by a substantial 16.5% over Congress. Also, teachers, drivers, and self-employed individuals tend to favor the BJP, reflecting its appeal across diverse professional groups. While Congress maintains marginal lead among laborers and those with no formal education, the saffron party's dominance among the educated, employed, and aspirational citizens reinforces its image as the party of progress, development, and good governance. This data clearly indicates that New India-young, skilled, and ambitious-is increasingly backing the BJP.

Farmers, however, are deeply agitated. Congress dismantled several BJP's pro-farmer initiatives, including the ₹4,000 PM-Kisan support scheme and Raita Vidya Nidhi. The fallout has been severe: a rise in farmer suicides and a 54% shift of farmer votes toward the BJP. Rural Karnataka is no longer trusting Congress' populist handouts-they demand meaningful investment, not empty promises.

The Caste Census Backlash: A Masterstroke That Backfired

Congress' recent attempt at caste-based social engineering in Karnataka has backfired, following the leak of a dubious caste survey report in media circles. The report has triggered sharp reactions, with over 75% of Kannadigas reportedly rejecting its findings as unrepresentative and questionable.

Traditionally supportive groups such as Dalits, OBCs, and ST communities appear to be distancing themselves from the party. The Ahinda alliance-once central to Congress's inclusive image-is now being criticised by observers as a vehicle for minority appeasement rather than genuine social justice.

In the SC-Left Madiga community, a significant 35-40% shift in support toward the BJP reflects growing frustration with the Congress over its handling of internal reservations. Many Madigas believe the Congress has failed to deliver on its promises and see the party's actions as politically expedient rather than rooted in genuine commitment. In contrast, the BJP's open acknowledgment of their long-standing demands is being seen as a more honest engagement, prompting a notable consolidation of support. A similar trend is emerging within the Scheduled Tribes (ST) segment, where 57% of Valmikis and an even higher 64.3% of Nayaks are now backing the BJP. This shift signals a steady erosion of Congress's tribal support base. If Lok Sabha elections were held today, the party could face major setbacks in key constituencies such as Raichur (ST), Bellary (ST), and Chikodi-seats it secured in 2024 but now risks losing amid accusations of neglect and broken promises.

Karnataka's Women and Senior Citizens: The Forgotten Victims of Congress's Lies

Women who were promised economic empowerment have instead faced rampant inflation, delayed schemes, and selective disbursal of benefits. Housewives see through the deception, especially when schemes like Gruha Lakshmi are misused for vote-bank appeasement rather than universal upliftment.

Elderly pensioners, hit hardest by inflation, feel cheated and abandoned. Congress's governance has turned their final years into a financial nightmare.

The Verdict is Clear: Karnataka Believes in BJP's Vision, Not Congress's Illusions

From youth to senior citizens, farmers to taxpayers, rural to urban, the mood in Karnataka is unmistakable-Congress has failed, and BJP is the future.

While Congress plays with caste equations, makes populist promises, and indulges in appeasement, the BJP under Narendra Modi is seen as the only serious party focused on development, dignity, and national strength.

The Congress has not only lost ground-it has lost trust. Karnataka's message is not just a mid-term reaction. It is a preview of the 2028 Karnataka Legislative Assembly election and a testament to the enduring popularity of the BJP's governance model.