Monsoon overactive, 109% surplus rains in Central India

| Updated: Saturday, June 15, 2013, 15:26 [IST]

New Delhi, June 15: The first two weeks of the monsoon season has been wet and brought more than normal rains this year. In its first two weeks, monsoon has covered two-thirds of the country and overall rainfall to date is 28 percent above the long period average (LPA). This trend will continue during the remaining part of this month, and the next month as well, says meteorological department.

The indicators known to influence the monsoon rain, like sea surface temperatures in Pacific and Indian Ocean, are positive at this point of time, though there is a slight possibility of them becoming unfavourable towards the later part of the season.

Region-wise, central India has recorded 109 percent surplus rain and south peninsula 59 percent. Even in northwest India, there has been 50 percent surplus rain. The only exception has been the east and northeast region, which has reported a 47 percent rainfall deficiency.

In its latest forecast, the Indian Meteorological Department said yesterady that the country will get normal rains (98 percent) this year.

As has been the trend so far this year, IMD said monsoon rain is expected to spread across the country way ahead of the schedule, covering the whole of India by July 15.

"Two-thirds of the country's land mass has already been covered by monsoon. It has progressed quite well so far. This will ensure timely sowing of crops," IMD director general L S Rathore said.

The met office said 78 percent of the 36 sub-divisions have recorded excess rain so far. "The actual rainfall recorded so far since June 1 is 65mm as against the normal of 50.6mm," an analysis released by the IMD said.

For July, the Met department is forecasting 101 per cent rains while August is likely to have 96 per cent of its normal.

Regionwise, the southern peninsula is expected to get maximum rains this year, 103 per cent for the entire season, while north-west India is likely to get 94 per cent, the IMD said.

While IMD's traditional six parameter ensemble statistical forecasting system has thrown up a 98% LPA monsoon, its experimental forecast system based on the monsoon mission's dynamical prediction system has indicated 108% of LPA rainfall for the season with an error margin of +/-4%.

Dr D S Pai, director (long-range forecast), IMD, said chances of weak La Nina conditions developing in the second half of the monsoon were being indicated, which could boost rains in that period. La Nina is the name given to unusual cooling of east central Pacific Ocean waters which is seen to aid the southwest monsoon.

The monsoon rainfall is critical to the country's mainly agriculture based economy as almost 60 percent of the cultivable land falls under the rain fed area, totally dependent on the monsoon.