RBI-sponsored survey lowers growth forecast to 7.9 pc

Mumbai, Aug 13: A Reserve Bank sponsored survey has lowered the growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.9 per cent from 8.2 per cent estimated earlier and pegged March- end inflation at 7-7.9 per cent.

"For 2011-12, forecasters have revised their real GDP growth rate projections to 7.9 per cent," RBI said in a release on a survey conducted by ''Professional Forecasters''.

RBI itself in its monetary policy had projected 8 per cent growth rate for the current fiscal, while the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council expects it to be 8.2 per cent. The economy expanded by 8.5 per cent in 2010-11.

On inflation, the survey said it would come down to 7-7.9 per cent by March-end, from 9.44 per cent in June. Food inflation, which accounts for 15 per cent in the overall wholesale price index (WPI) basket, was 9.90 per cent for the week ended July 30.

The growth rate projection for agriculture, industry and services are 3.5 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 9 per cent respectively.

"For agriculture there has been an upward revision and for the industry and the services, there is a downward revision from the previous round," it said.

The survey, conducted between April and June 2011, provides forecast for major macro-economic indicators relating to short and medium term term economic developments. It did not take into account the impact of downgrade of the US Sovereign ratings by Standard

PTI