Will UPA survive the floor test?

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New Delhi, Jul 8: With Left parties finally deciding to withdraw its outside support to the 50-month-old United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government over the Indo-US nuclear deal, the number game in the Lok Sabha has begun in earnest.

The number of MPs supporting the UPA government in case of a floor test will decide the political course in the coming days.The Left would formally convey the decision of withdrawal of support to President Pratibha Patil tomorrow. The crucial decision, which makes the Congress-led government a minority, came a day after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made it clear that the government would approach the IAEA for safeguards agreement ''very soon''.

Immediately after the Left withdrew support, the Samajwadi Party Parliamentary Board passed a unanimous resolution to support the Congress-led UPA government and vote in its favour in the Lok Sabha on the nuclear deal.

The meeting assumed significance following reports that the SP's arch rival BSP was making an attempt to win the MPs to its side to make them vote against the UPA government in case a no-confidence motion was brought in Parliament.

SP MP Salim Sherwani rubbished reports that some Muslim MPs were against the nuclear deal.

Here is a look at the party position following the Left's decision to withdraw support to the government: Left parties -- CPM (43), CPI (10), All India Forward Block (3) and Revolutionary Socialist Party (3)-- have 59 MPs. Among the bigger players, BJP with 130 MPs and BSP with 17 MPs would vote against the government. Though Shiv Sena, with 12 MPs, is part of the NDA, it has spoken in favour of the nuke deal. But it has clarified that it was with the NDA on the nuclear deal.

With People's Democratic Party (PDP) moving out of coalition in Jammu and Kashmir, its stand on support to the UPA is not clear.

Ms Mayawati's Bahujan Samajwadi Party with 17 MPs had recently withdrawn support to the Congress-led government.

With Mulayam Singh Yadav-led SP's (39 MPs) ready to support the government in the Lok Sabha, the UPA government could come close to mustering simple majority. It needs at least 272 MPs out of 543 in the LS for survival.

The UPA position in Lok Sabha is : Congress 153, Rashtriya Janata Dal 24, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 16, Nationalist Congres Party 11, Pattali Makkal Katchi 6, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 5, Lok Janshakti Party 4, Muslim League Kerala State Committee 1, Republican Party of India- A 1, Sikkim Democratic Front 1, National Loktantrik Party 1, Kerala Congress 2 and PDP 1.

The total comes to 226 The Mizo National Front (1), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (1), Telangana Rashtra Samiti (3), National Conference (2) and TDP (5) Trinamul Congress (1), Bharatiya Navshakti Party (1), Nagaland People's Front (1) and Asom Gana Parishad (2).

may or may not support the government.


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