US officials expected to oppose Iraq strategy shift

WASHINGTON, Sep 9 (Reuters) The top US general and diplomat in Iraq are expected tomorrow to argue against any major decrease in U.S. troop levels for now because this could undercut any progress made under the ''surge'' of forces into Iraq this year, a US official said today.

Gen David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are expected to make the case that a major change in US President George W Bush's strategy in the deeply unpopular war could make matters worse, according to the official, who spoke on condition that he not be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The two will testify before Congress to describe the state of Iraq more than four years after US-led forces invaded in March 2003 to topple former dictator Saddam Hussein in a war that has unleashed a vicious insurgency and brutal sectarian conflict and has killed more than 3,700 US soldiers.

According to www.iraqbodycount.net, between 71,302 and 77,852 Iraqi civilians have been killed in the conflict although the group, run by academics and peace activists, says its figures underestimate the true number of casualties.

The testimony by the US Iraq commander and by the US ambassador to Iraq will precede a White House report due by September 15 on Iraqi progress in meeting 18 US security and political benchmarks.

Independent and official reports this summer have found the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki failed to meet the majority of these.

While the report had been expected to mark a potential turning point in Bush's war strategy, many analysts believe he will not change course despite the unpopularity of the war and the opposition of many Democratic lawmakers, who won control of Congress last year because of anti-war sentiment.

The US official said Petraeus and Crocker were not expected to advocate any change in the Maliki government despite frustration at his failure to promote reconciliation among Iraq's Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish populations.

One of Bush's aims in deploying 30,000 more troops to Iraq this year -- bringing US troop levels to roughly 168,000 -- was the hope that such a ''surge'' would buy time for Iraq's divided leaders to reach a political compromise.

The assessments by Petraeus and Crocker are expected to highlight a reduction in violence in Iraq but also note the country's failure to pass laws aimed at reconciling warring majority Shi'ites and Sunni Arabs.

Both have already telegraphed their views.

In an interview with the CBS ''Evening News'' last week, Crocker minimized the usefulness of the benchmarks in measuring progress in Iraq and suggested a US withdrawal would have grave consequences.

In a letter to the troops on Friday, Petraeus cited progress on the security front but bemoaned the lack of political progress, saying that everyone was ''dissatisfied by the halting progress on major legislative initiatives.'' While the Democrats won control of both houses of Congress last year largely because of anti-war sentiment, they do not appear to have the votes to force a curtailment of the US effort but cutting off funding.

REUTERS TB RN0116