British pullout from Basra a test for Iraqi forces

BASRA, Iraq, Aug 29 (Reuters) As British forces prepare to pull out of their last base inside Basra, Iraq's security forces face their biggest test yet -- stopping the country's oil centre from becoming a battleground for rival Shi'ite militias.

In a possible sign of things to come, Shi'ite militiamen tried on Sunday to occupy a police station in Basra which a small contingent of British troops had vacated only hours earlier. Iraqi police said they thwarted the attempt.

For residents, the convoys of military trucks and helicopters going to and from the base in Basra Palace, built for Saddam Hussein, signal the beginning of the end of a British presence in the city for the first time since the U.S.-led invasion to oust the Iraqi leader in 2003.

''We are pulling out of the palace to reduce our operational footprint in the city in order to give the Iraqi security forces space to exercise their ability to police their city,'' said British military spokesman Major Mike Shearer in Basra.

''As soon as the conditions are right, we will extract ourselves.

This is dependent on the Iraqi security forces being able to police their city.'' Stepping into the breach will be the Iraqi Army's 10th Division, which the British military says is now planning and leading security operations in Basra. Two battalions sent to Baghdad for a major crackdown there have also performed well.

''We have been ready to take over the security of Basra for a long time,'' said Lieutenant-Colonel Abbas al-Timeemi, spokesman for the division, adding that he expected British troops to withdraw from the palace within the next few days.

A report by the International Crisis Group in June assessed the performance of the army to be ''decent albeit imperfect'' while police were judged to be ''wholly inadequate'' and a British operation to fight militia penetration of the police force not as successful as the British had claimed.

SAFETY VALVE Many residents say they are happy to see the back of the British, who now number about 5,500 down from 7,200 a year ago. However, some fear that once they withdraw to a desert airbase outside the city there will be no restraints on the militias.

''I think the situation will get worse if the British forces leave. There are hidden struggles between the different parties and militants. The presence of the British is a safety valve,'' said unemployed Basra resident Abu Ali, 39.

In a report entitled ''The Calm Before the Storm'', the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote in February: ''The drawdown of British forces in the deep south will likely be accompanied by an upsurge of factional violence as the long-delayed fight for local supremacy begins in earnest.'' A riverside university city of more than one million people, Iraq's second city is strategically vital as the hub of southern oil fields that produce nearly all of the government's revenue, and the centre for imports and exports through the Gulf.

It has witnessed a turf war between rival Shi'ite groups, including supporters of fiery cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the powerful Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council and smaller Fadhila party, which controls the governorate.

Factions have battled using political assassinations and street warfare, mainly for control of illegal oil traffic.

Residents say there is now a fragile calm between the factions, but the ICG suggested the stability was illusory: ''Periods of stability do not reflect greater governing authority so much as they do a momentary -- and fragile -- balance of interest or of terror between rival militias.'' ROCKET BARRAGES While Basra residents say they feel safe enough to walk in the city at night, roadside bomb attacks and mortar and rocket barrages on British forces have surged. British generals say they are leaving in part because their troops' continued presence would make the security situation worse.

About 41 British soldiers have been killed in southern Iraq this year, the highest number of casualties suffered by the British since the first year of the war.

''The tough hits against the British will force them to pull out of Basra and Iraq,'' said a leader of Sadr's Mehdi Army militia, which has stepped attacks on British troops in recent weeks in an effort to claim victory when the British withdraw.

The pullout by 500 soldiers from the palace, which is attacked with mortars daily, is part of a plan to hand over control of Basra province to Iraqi forces before the end of the year. British troops would remain in an ''overwatch'' role.

The British forces reject criticism, by military analysts and some anonymous US officials, that they have allowed Iraq's gateway to the Gulf to fall into the hands of militias and their withdrawal from Basra Palace signals their defeat.

''We are here, we are living it. A lot of these armchair pundits who are making these claims from afar are not here living it and seeing what is going on,'' Shearer said.

''We are not going to create a security vacuum. We are still responsible for the security of Basra. Nothing has changed.'' High school teacher, Muhammed, 49, is not easily convinced.

''The security forces are unable to protect the people. The British troops are the only forces which can stop the armed groups.

Their withdrawal means disaster in Basra.'' REUTERS RC ND0916