Generals won't leave politics after Thai polls

BANGKOK, Aug 24 (Reuters) This week's big ''No'' vote against the Thai constitution will persuade the generals who ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to try to hold on to the reins of power after December elections to finish him off politically, analysts say.

The 41 per cent vote against the referendum last Sunday meant the state and military machines had failed to crack the entrenched networks of Thaksin supporters in the north and northeast, they said.

Despite passage of the draft with 57 per cent approval, the ''No'' vote showed the generals had not finished the job they started with last September's coup, the analysts said.

The generals want to end the influence of Thaksin, whom they accuse of abuse of power and corruption, charges he denies.

But with Thaksin's influence remaining strong, the military and the government it appointed would have to ensure the general election did not allow supporters of Thaksin, who lives in exile in London, back into power or allow him to return.

''General Sonthi has everything to lose if he cannot exert some control over the post-election political environment,'' said political science professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

''As election day approaches, the Council for National Security and government are likely to do everything in their power to ensure the People's Power Party is undermined and excluded from the post-government,'' he wrote in the English-language Bangkok Post this week.

Thitinan was referring to a newly created pro-Thaksin party, which is expected to do well in the north and northeast.

Both regions have about half of the 480-seat House of Representatives and were major factors in Thaksin's two landslide election victories.

ON THE TIGER'S BACK A pro-Thaksin majority in the next parliament would probably mean an end to the pursuit of corruption charges against him, the withdrawal of an arrest warrant and the unfreezing of more than 1.5 billion dollars of his assets in Thailand.

''Once you are on the tiger's back, it is difficult to get down,'' radio political commentator Sukhum Nualskul said.

The passage of the constitution, which aims to prevent a repeat of a strong single-party government like Thaksin's, is shaping the campaign for the December election into a race among three political groupings.

There is an alliance of anti-Thaksin parties and a party of Thaksin supporters, neither likely to win an absolute majority.

Then there is a group of parties, some including former Thaksin members of parliament, floating in the middle and ready to join whichever of the other two comes out ahead.

The middle grouping is the expected landing pad for coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin in a run for an office after his mandatory retirement in September, analysts said.

Sonthi has made no definite commitment to run or suggested what role he might play in politics, but colleagues say he has told them privately he has to be in politics to protect his back from Thaksin reprisals after the elections.

A businessman is also forming a party and has invited Sonthi to lead and asked other generals to join him, but Sonthi said he would announce his decision on politics after his retirement.

Thaksin loyalists will be running under the banner of the People's Power party, which has drawn about 215 members Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party, dissolved after being found guilty of electoral fraud.

Thaksin, a policeman turned telecommunications billionaire before he entered politics, will still have the resources to put money into the election campaign, analysts say.

However, the military and the government it appointed are expected to use all the resources, military and political, at their command to minimise the pro-Thaksin vote.

''It will be a battle between state power and money, both of which are not truly democratic,'' said social critic Prawase Wasi.

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