Two Koreas to hold summit, doubts rise over value

SEOUL, Aug 8 (Reuters) The leaders of North and South Korea will meet this month in the North Korean capital Pyongyang in only the second summit between the two countries and their first in seven years, both sides announced today.

Analysts immediately questioned the value of the August 28-30 meeting, which follows an agreement among regional powers that has pushed North Korea towards ending its nuclear weapons programme in return for massive aid.

Some analysts said a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il seemed aimed more at giving a boost to unpopular South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun as he comes to the end of his term than genuinely contributing to better North-South relations.

Officials of both countries were full of optimism in their simultaneous surprise announcement, however.

''It will provide the basis for establishing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula,'' chief presidential national security adviser Baek Jong-chun told reporters.

''The meeting ... will be of weighty significance in opening a new phase of peace on the Korean peninsula, co-prosperity of the nation and national reunification,'' the official North Korean KCNA news agency said.

The two sides will hold preparatory talks in Kaesong, a South Korean-funded industrial estate just inside the North close to the heavily-defended buffer zone that has divided the Koreas for more than 50 years.

The two countries are still technically at war as their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

NUCLEAR TALKS Pyongyang has made its first significant move as agreed in so-called six-party talks hosted by Beijing by shutting down its nuclear reactor and source of material for atomic weapons.

But analysts say it will be a nearly impossible task to get the paranoid North to give up its nuclear weapons altogether as it is being pressed to do in the talks -- comprising the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States.

''The summit is not going to contribute to the resolution of the nuclear issue in any way. But be prepared for another wave of unification euphoria in the South,'' said Brian Myers, associate professor of international relations at Dongseo University and a North Korea specialist.

Lee Dong-bok, senior associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies in Seoul, also questioned the impact the meeting would have on the disarmament talks.

''This summit will do little to boost the six-party talks because South Korea has no leverage in the process. It should have come after a breakthrough in the nuclear talks. Now it's the other way round.

''Therefore the summit appears to have more to do with South Korea's presidential election in December. Whether the left-wing government in South Korea is surviving is a key concern for North Korea too. The summit could provide a political boost to the current ruling party and its partners.'' Opinion polls show that the right-of-centre Grand National Party -- which touts a tougher line against Pyongyang -- is almost certain to win the presidential election. North Korea's state media routinely pillories the party, accusing it of wanting to raise tensions on the peninsula.

The first summit, in June 2000, was hailed as a breakthrough in bringing a chance of peace to the Cold War's last frontier.

The architect of that meeting, then South Korean President Kim Dae-jung who is still an influential figure in domestic politics, welcomed the news of a second summit.

''I hope for vast development on peace throughout the Korean peninsula and inter-Korean cooperation,'' he said.

His role in the first meeting earned Kim a Nobel Peace Prize but the success was tarnished when his administration was suspected of sending hundreds of millions of dollars to the North to secure the summit.

Some of his top aides were convicted of making illegal payments, but Kim himself escaped any legal blame.

Analysts said the fact that this second meeting was again in the North and not the South suggested a concession by Seoul.

Masao Okonogi, Korea specialist at Tokyo's Keio University, also expressed doubts about what the South Korean president could achieve.

''There is concern that Roh may make some sort of excessive or strange commitment, and cause problems later ... there are doubts about the place, the reason and the timing,'' he said.

''From the perspective of the United States and Japan, they are cool to the notion of South Korea getting out in front. They would prefer this took place after there had been some movement in the six-way talks. So the minuses are bigger than the pluses.'' Reuters SG DB0916