Japan PM Abe's coalition braces for election blow

TOKYO, July 29 (Reuters) Japan's conservative ruling camp braced for an expected election defeat today that could put pressure on hawkish Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to resign and usher in a period of policy paralysis and political confusion.

Polling stations across Japan opened at 0700 hrs (0330 ist) on a cloudy morning, but stormy weather hit Tokyo later in the day. The first results were expected soon after the polls close at 2000 hrs (1630 ist).

The election for half the seats in parliament's 242-member upper house is the first since Abe took over as leader of the main ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), pledging to boost Japan's global security profile, rewrite its pacifist constitution and nurture economic growth.

''I've always voted for the LDP, but this time I voted for the Democratic Party,'' said Toshio Muto, 75, a craftsman in Tokyo's Setagaya ward, referring to the main opposition party.

''I've seen the LDP pass a lot of legislation by force. I don't want this. I want change,'' he added.

The LDP and its junior partner, the Buddhist-backed New Komeito, need to win 64 seats to keep their majority in the upper house. The New Komeito is aiming for 13 seats.

Abe's coalition will not be ousted from government if it loses in the upper house, since it has a huge majority in the more powerful lower chamber, which elects the premier.

But laws will be hard to enact, threatening policy deadlock.

Abe's allies have said he need not step down even if the coalition loses and many analysts agree he might be able to hang on temporarily -- especially if the LDP wins at least 40 seats -- partly because of the lack of a convincing successor.

A weakened ruling bloc is expected to try to bolster its hand by wooing independents, members of a small party, and conservatives in the Democratic Party.

Still, pressure for 52-year-old Abe to resign is expected to grow if the coalition suffers a crushing defeat.

Despite tough talk towards China before taking office in September, Abe won early praise for improving ties with Beijing and Seoul chilled during the five-year reign of his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi.

But doubts about his leadership abilities were fanned by a series of gaffes and scandals that led two cabinet members to resign and one to commit suicide, as well as revelations that the government had lost track of millions of premium payments.

NO KOIZUMI Only two years ago, Koizumi led the LDP to a huge victory in a lower house election that the charismatic maverick made a referendum on his pet project of privatising the postal system.

The soft-spoken Abe, analysts say, was always at risk of suffering by comparison with the sound-bite savvy Koizumi.

Critics also say Abe, whose top priorities are revising the constitution and reforming education to nurture patriotism, was out of touch with voters' worries about bread-and-butter issues.

''Prime Minister Abe has projects like revising the constitution, but the Democrats have been saying that people's everyday lives should come first,'' said 48-year-old newspaper seller Hirofumi Nemoto, who voted for the Democratic Party in Chiba, near Tokyo.

Hoping to woo those hit by Koizumi's market-friendly reforms, Democratic Party leader Ichiro Ozawa -- a pugnacious veteran who bolted from the LDP 14 years ago -- has pledged to shrink income gaps and ensure the weak are not neglected.

Yukari Yamada, a 32-year-old housewife leaving a Tokyo polling station with her husband and small child, said she was angry about the pensions mess, but had still voted for the LDP.

''Until yesterday I was going to vote for the Democrats, but when I saw various opinions on television, I began to think they were all the same anyway,'' she said.

Some analysts and politicians say a deadlock could spark an early election for the lower house, but with a massive majority in the chamber, the ruling camp would be wary of taking that risk. No general election need be held until 2009.

Interim voter turnout was 27.78 per cent as of 2 pm local time, about the same as the previous election.

REUTERS SKB RK1305