Japan ruling bloc heads for loss, PM wants to stay

TOKYO, July 26 (Reuters) Japan's ruling camp is headed for a loss, possibly by a hefty margin, in Sunday's upper house election, a newspaper reported, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he wanted to keep pushing reforms no matter what.

Today's forecast by the Yomiuri newspaper was the latest to predict a loss for Abe's coalition after his support rates were halved to around 30 per cent on anger over bungled pension records and a series of gaffes and scandals that forced two cabinet ministers to resign and led one to commit suicide.

Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, the New Komeito, need a total of 64 seats to keep their majority in the upper house, where half of the 242 seats are up for grabs. The New Komeito is aiming for 13 seats.

The Yomiuri said the LDP could win fewer than 40 of the 63 seats it has up for reelection, a performance seen by many analysts as likely to spark calls in the LDP for Abe to quit.

The main opposition Democratic Party has a shot at winning more than 60 seats on its own, which would make it the biggest party in the upper house, the newspaper said.

But it added that the outcome was uncertain, since around 40 percent of voters were still undecided.

Abe's backers have begun laying the ground for him to stay on in the face of defeat, dismissing past precedents where prime ministers have resigned after big losses in upper house polls.

'FULFILLING MY MISSION' Abe, writing in his weekly e-mail magazine, said he wanted to complete his mission of achieving changes such as education reform and revising the pacifist constitution.

''The challenge of these reforms has begun to move surely, step by step,'' Abe wrote. ''Whatever the circumstances, I want to fulfil my mission by steadily promoting reforms, without losing sight of the starting point.'' Analysts say Abe's chances of clinging to power depend on the size of his coalition's defeat, but some add that the lack of a viable successor could also help him keep his job.

Foreign Minister Taro Aso, who shares many of Abe's policy goals but has a penchant for gaffes, is seen as a frontrunner but could be tainted by his role in Abe's administration.

''I do not expect Abe to step down. There is very little chance for the LDP to fix anything by doing so,'' said Martin Schulz, a research fellow at Fujitsu Research Institute.

The ruling camp will not be ejected from government if it loses in the upper house since it has a strong grip on the more powerful lower chamber.

But without a ruling bloc majority, laws would be hard to enact, threatening policy paralysis, unless Abe's coalition can woo independents, members of small parties or even disaffected lawmakers from the Democratic Party -- a sometimes fractious group of conservatives, ex-LDP lawmakers and former Socialists.

Some wonder whether Abe, at 52 Japan's youngest prime minister since World War Two and scion of an elite political family, can cope with the post-election jockeying sure to go on.

''Abe ... has been very gently raised,'' Naoki Inose, an author now serving as vice governor of Tokyo, told reporters.

''After the election, we're going to enter a combat situation, and in this situation instinct is needed over intellect. So I'm a bit worried.'' Japanese TV broadcasters and other media will issue results of their exit polls after polls close at 8 pm (1100 GMT) on Sunday, July 29, and final results are expected later that night or early on Monday.

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