Japan PM seen likely to lose upper house election

TOKYO, July 18 (Reuters) Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition is ''highly likely'' to lose a July 29 upper house election, a newspaper forecast today, after its survey showed further falls in support for Abe.

Chances that Abe's ruling bloc will keep its upper house majority have dimmed because of government mishandling of pension records and a series of scandals and gaffes that cost his cabinet three ministers, two from resignations and one by suicide.

Only 27.9 per cent of those responding to the July 14-16 survey by the conservative Yomiuri newspaper said they backed Abe's cabinet, against 51.7 per cent who disapproved.

The ruling coalition will not be ejected from government if it loses its upper house majority, since parliament's lower chamber picks the prime minister.

But a big defeat would make it hard to pass new laws and would put pressure on Abe to resign.

The Yomiuri said the main opposition Democratic Party now had a chance to win the largest number of seats and the possibility was high that the ruling coalition would lose its majority.

Yomiuri said the election outcome remained uncertain, not least because 30 percent to 50 per cent of voters were undecided.

''All I can conclude now is that Abe is in very, very serious trouble,'' said Gerry Curtis, a political science professor at Columbia University who specialises in Japanese politics.

The latest survey mirrored a Jiji news agency poll published on Friday, which put Abe's support at 25.7 per cent.

Japanese media speculated today that Abe, 52, might get a boost after cutting short campaigning to take charge on Monday after a deadly earthquake hit northwestern Japan, killing nine people and forcing thousands to evacuate.

Abe flew to the worst-hit city the same afternoon. Not to be outdone, a senior opposition figure visited the area the same day.

Abe also sternly reprimanded the country's biggest utility, Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), which said yesterday that there had been minor radiation leaks from its nuclear plant in the areas, but Curtis doubted Abe would see much electoral benefit from the issue.

The LDP and its junior partner, the New Komeito party, need to win 64 seats to keep their majority in the upper house, where half of the 242 seats are up for grabs.

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