Can Argentine first lady be reformer as president?

BUENOS AIRES, July 3 (Reuters) Argentina's government has finally confirmed that the first lady will run for president but analysts are divided over whether Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner would make economic reforms her husband has eschewed.

Fernandez, a prominent senator, has been a leading adviser to President Nestor Kirchner and shares his center-left ideology.

Some analysts say she would be unlikely to change economic policy if elected in October.

But others think she would have the political room to make reforms that her husband's hard-line rhetoric would not allow, such as raising public utility tariffs or reaching a swift accord to repay the country's defaulted debt with the Paris Club group of creditor nations.

''To me, Cristina means continuity in terms of economic policy,'' said Pablo Morra, an economist at Goldman Sachs in New York. ''The government says she's been actively involved in government decision-making over the last four years, so I have to assume she endorses at least the main policy lines.'' Recent opinion polls show Fernandez winning in the first-round ballot on Oct 28 with more than 40 per cent of the votes. But she has less support than her husband -- a fact which the fragmented opposition is anxious to exploit.

If she were to win, Fernandez would become the first woman to be elected president of Argentina but not the first to run the country. Isabel Peron, the widow of strongman Juan Domingo Peron, took over as president after he died in 1974 but was ousted by a military coup two years later.

Fernandez, 54, a tough-talking lawyer, was better known than her husband when he ran for office in 2003 as governor from the Patagonian province of Santa Cruz.

'MORE REASONABLE' The first lady has traveled widely this year, in what was seen as a bid to show herself as more open to the world and foreign investors than Kirchner, whose combative approach to big business appeals to many Argentines.

''I think she'd try to be slightly more reasonable than him.

She wouldn't be so provincial or parochial, because he's not interested in anything outside Latin America,'' political analyst James Neilson said.

Kirchner's presidency has coincided with four years of robust economic growth following a crisis in 2001-2002.

Argentina's economy has expanded by at least 8.5 per cent in each of the last four years, thanks in part to strong consumer spending and high international commodities prices.

Kirchner has increased state intervention in the economy and worked to keep the peso weak against the US dollar, leading to fiscal and trade surpluses.

Argentina restructured some 100 billion dollars in defaulted sovereign debt in 2005 but is still unable to issue bonds under international legislation due to lawsuits by holdout creditors.

Its debt to the Paris Club is another holdover from the crisis.

Argentina's sovereign debt is classified as below investment grade by the main ratings agencies.

Analysts say insufficient investment and other circumstances could force Fernandez to make policy changes.

''She will face challenges. From the very beginning she will have to deal with high inflation pressures and a difficult energy situation,'' Morra said. ''She might possibly reach the conclusion that the policies in place have not addressed those issues and she might have to change.'' Also in the presidential race are Elisa Carrio, a center-left former congresswoman; Roberto Lavagna, Kirchner's former economy minister; Ricardo Lopez Murphy, an center-right economist; and former President Carlos Menem.

REUTERS RKM KP0838