East Timor faces third election in three months

Dili, June 27: East Timor holds parliamentary polls on Saturday, as a new party led by former President Xanana Gusmao seeks to break the grip on power held by the ruling Fretilin party since independence five years ago.

Campaigning got off to a bloody start with the shooting dead of two Gusmao backers in early June, highlighting bitter divisions in the impoverished nation of just 1 million people.

The tiny country is one of the world's poorest but is only beginning to tap rich energy resources that over time could significantly raise standards of living while providing new sources of natural gas and oil for foreign markets.

After the initial campaign violence the situation in recent weeks has been calmer, but analysts warn the former Portuguese colony, which needed foreign troops to restore order after it descended into chaos last year, now needs stability to nurture fragile institutions and the economy.

''At first I predicted there would be violence, but after a bloody campaign start things started to get under control and I believe that the election will go smoothly,'' said Julio Tomas Pinto of the University of Timor Leste.

There are 14 parties or coalitions contesting the poll, but it is widely seen as a showdown between Fretilin and CNRT, a party launched by bearded resistance hero Gusmao who after serving as president now wants the more hands-on post of prime minister.

The poor showing of Fretilin's candidate in the presidential poll has been seen as a vote of disapproval, but Pinto does not expect any party to win a clear majority in the 65-seat chamber.

President Jose Ramos-Horta, a Nobel prize winner who spent years abroad as a spokesman for East Timor's struggle for independence from Indonesia, called for unity last week.

Some Fretilin leaders have been blamed for factional struggles, culminating in a wave of violence last May that killed 37 people and drove 150,000 from their homes after the army split along regional lines.

Huge Challenges

The next government faces huge challenges, particularly how to ease chronic poverty and cut massive unemployment, both of which have helped encourage a culture of gang violence to flourish.

Much will depend on how it handles the billions of dollars in energy revenue expected to flow its way in coming decades.

About 10 per cent of the population also remains displaced, with about 30,000 in camps dotted around the capital, reluctant to go home in the face of sporadic violence, vandalism and arson.

Atul Khare, U.N. special envoy to East Timor, said on Tuesday the country may need international help for decades.

Compounding the situation, drought and plagues of locusts have slashed the harvest this year, meaning that about a fifth of East Timor's population will need food aid, a report by the U.N. Food and Agriculture and the World Food Programme said.

Analysts say none of the parties, particularly CNRT, since it is so new, has clear platforms on many issues, although the Fretilin is generally viewed as leaning to the left.

The new government will have to decide whether to dole out more quickly some of the 1 billion dollar or so already in an oil fund from the early stages of exploiting Timor Sea energy resources.

Some analysts have also criticised redtape and bureaucracy as holding up much needed inflow of investments.

How long a force of Australian-led troops should remain in the country is another issue, while authorities have so far failed to punish most of the alleged perpetrators of the 2006 violence, including fugitive army renegade, Alfredo Reinado.

Reinado, who escaped jail in August, has taunted authorities via the media, and even been on an Indonesian TV chat show.

Despite such issues, platforms may have little influence.

''Personalities rather than party platforms are likely to determine the outcome of the parliamentary contest, and no one is offering concrete solutions to the country's many problems'', the International Crisis Group said in a recent report.

Reuters>