Japan's North Korea stance hostage to abductee feud

TOKYO, June 25 (Reuters) - Signs of progress in getting North Korea to scrap its nuclear arms programme are putting pressure on Japan to change its stern stance toward Pyongyang.

But, despite the risk of diplomatic isolation, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is unlikely to shift gears until after a crucial July election -- and quite possibly not even then, analysts say.

Abe has said Tokyo would refuse economic assistance to its reclusive communist neighbour unless it saw progress in a dispute over Japanese citizens kidnapped decades ago to help train North Korean spies in language and culture.

The topic of the abductees is an emotive one for many Japanese, and Abe -- his poll standing sinking ahead of the upper house election mainly because of government bungling of pension records -- has little scope to shift his position, analysts said.

''Japan is the spoiler in resolving the nuclear issue. And it will not change its stance easily, especially with its elections,'' said Yun Duk-min, a professor at Seoul's Institute of Foreign Affairs&National Security.

Today Abe once again emphasised the abduction issue when asked by reporters about North Korea's statement that it would start implementing a February nuclear disarmament deal.

''North Korea needs to recognise that they will be accepted by international society after denuclearising and solving the abduction issue,'' he told reporters.

Japanese officials appeared concerned that the United States was rushing to compromise when Washington's top nuclear envoy, Christopher Hill, made a surprise visit to Pyongyang last week.

WEAK POINTS ''There is nothing as absurd as being in such a rush that your weak points can be exploited,'' Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said after Hill flew to Pyongyang on Thursday.

Japan's stance is unlikely to be a big problem yet, analysts said, since South Korea has said it would contribute the initial 50,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil in return for North Korea shutting down and sealing its Yongbyon reactor under the first phase of a Feb. 13 agreement on nuclear disarmament.

The chief inspector of the United Nation's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), arrived in China today en route to North Korea, where he hopes to arrange the return of an IAEA team to monitor Pyongyang's reactor shutdown.

Progress in a second phase, in which Pyongyang has promised to disable its nuclear programmes in return for 950,000 tonnes of fuel oil or its equivalent, however, would mean stepped-up pressure on Japan to change course, diplomatic experts said.

''South Korea and China are already talking about Japan being a 'free-rider' and the United States wants Japan to take part in the second phase. Japan knows that, but because of the abductions, it will face a very difficult decision,'' said Shunji Hiraiwa, a Korea expert at Shizuoka Prefectural University.

MOTHBALLING REACTOR North Korea had agreed at six-country talks in February to mothball Yongbyon in exchange for the fuel aid and other benefits, including steps to lift trade sanctions and its removal from a U.S.

list of state sponsors of terrorism.

But Pyongyang had refused to honour the deal until the release of 25 million dollar frozen at Macau's Banco Delta Asia after the United States blacklisted the bank. After months of wrangling, North Korea said today it had received the funds.

Abe has repeatedly made clear that Japan does not want Washington to remove North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism until the abductions dispute is resolved.

Pyongyang admitted in 2002 that its agents had kidnapped 13 Japanese, five of whom have since been repatriated.

North Korea says the other eight are dead, but Tokyo wants better information about their fate, as well as information on another four people it says were also kidnapped.

US envoy Hill has said the six countries' envoys might hold talks in early July and their foreign ministers could meet on the sidelines of a July 29-Aug. 2 regional conference in Manila.

But with the election looming, analysts say Tokyo would prefer a delay. Abe would not automatically be forced to resign if his ruling camp loses its upper house majority, but a big defeat would spark calls from within his own party to step down.

How much flexibility Abe would be willing or able to show after the election -- if he remains in office -- is unclear.

''For Abe, the abduction issue is a matter of conviction,'' Hiraiwa said. ''It would not be that easy to compromise.'' REUTERS SKB PM1732