S Africa's Mbeki faces biggest test in ANC

JOHANNESBURG, June 12 (Reuters) South African President Thabo Mbeki is facing mounting threats to his widely perceived plan to retain influence after he stands down as head of state.

The presidential succession debate has already plunged the African National Congress into some of its worst factional turmoil since it led South Africa from apartheid to multi-racial elections in 1994.

Now Mbeki - accused by critics of promoting big business at the expense of the poor - faces a direct challenge from provincial ANC branches pushing to remove him from the party's leadership race.

South Africa's constitution forbids Mbeki from serving as president for a third term when his current stint ends in 2009.

But many political analysts believe he will go for a new term to remain head of the ANC at its congress in December.

This would give him a big say on who becomes the next national president and thereby set South Africa's political agenda for years to come.

The ANC's powerful KwaZulu-Natal branch on Sunday adopted a resolution opposing two centres of power - shorthand for splitting political control between the ANC leader and the presidency.

ANC provincial branches outside Mbeki's camp have been lobbying for some time to ensure the new leader becomes the next president.

But analysts say Mbeki's opponents are now in their best position to advance the campaign, with most looking to a crucial ANC policy conference at the end of the month for signs of where the argument is headed.

Mbeki's free-market policies are currently under intense fire from one of the biggest public service pay strikes since the end of apartheid, a stoppage headed by powerful unions that back Mbeki's rival in the ANC contest, current party deputy president Jacob Zuma.

The controversial and resilient Zuma, whose stronghold is KwaZulu-Natal, remains popular among the rank and file despite several corruption scandals that have tarnished him.

BIGGEST THREAT ''This is the biggest threat to Mbeki's ANC re-election campaign,'' said Susan Booysen, a political analyst at the University of the Witwatersrand.

''This issue of one power centre will be on the agenda at the (December) meeting. If the ANC adopts that position it will be a big victory for Zuma and his people.'' The ANC has enjoyed an electoral stranglehold on South Africa since Nelson Mandela led the party to victory at the end of apartheid in 1994, but has been plagued by infighting since Mbeki dismissed Zuma as his deputy president in 2005.

Zuma could gain ammunition from the latest provincial lobbying against Mbeki.

Professor Adam Habib, of the Human Sciences Research Council, says ''the first salvo'' has been fired ahead of the ANC policy meeting from June 27 to July 1.

''I think it is worthwhile noting that these provincial policy conferences are really the curtain raisers,'' he told SAFM radio.

''This particular policy endorsement (by KwaZulu-Natal) was clearly aimed at ensuring that President Mbeki does not look towards standing for a third term.'' Mbeki's critics accuse him of undermining democracy by personally appointing provincial premiers, a view shared by Sipho Seepe, a director of the Graduate Institute of Management and Technology.

But Seepe says the struggle between the methodical Mbeki and Zuma, a man who is banking on grassroots support, is not really about democracy. Rather, it highlights a political problem in the country 13 years after its first all-race elections.

''People back politicians because they like them not because they have the qualifications. South African politics need to evolve into a merit system.'' The latest party manoeuvring could open the door for a compromise candidate to lead the ANC with former political prisoner and multi-millionaire businessman Tokyo Sexwale saying he could be a contender.

Reuters RKM GC1745