Barak likely in runoff to lead Israel's Labour

JERUSALEM, Mar 28 (Reuters) Former prime minister Ehud Barak looks likely to contest a runoff vote to lead Israel's Labour party after a primary election today that seems to have toppled the current chairman, exit polls indicated.

Two polls broadcast on Israeli media were sufficiently at odds and had error margin enough to leave open a possibility that Barak or former admiral Ami Ayalon might just have secured the 40 per cent needed to win outright in the first round.

One poll gave Barak the lead with 38 per cent to former spy chief Ayalon's 36 per cent, while another put Ayalon in front on 39 per cent and Barak, who led unsuccessful peace efforts with the Palestinians seven years ago, trailing on 33 per cent.

Amir Peretz, the party chairman and defence minister in the ruling coalition, trailed a poor third, both polls indicated.

A result is expected within hours and any runoff -- in which several polls have suggested Ayalon could beat Barak comfortably -- would take place in two weeks.

The result is unlikely to immediately affect the government, with all three frontrunners committed to maintaining the coalition with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's centrist Kadima party.

What appeared incontestable from the exit polls was that Amir Peretz, much criticised as defence minister since last year's Lebanon war, was destined to lose the Labour leadership as expected. One poll gave him 17 per cent, the other 19 per cent.

Barak and Ayalon, both distinguished military figures of the left who say they want to secure Israel's future by making peace with its Arab neighbours, have agreed to keep Labour as the ranking junior partner in Olmert's government for now.

Nonetheless, Olmert, like Peretz, has been savaged by an official inquiry into the conduct of last year's war in Lebanon and the longer-term future of the government is in doubt.

Labour's defection would likely spell an early general election. The next parliamentary ballot is not due till 2010.

Two other candidates in the Labour leadership primary registered only in the single digits. About 60 per cent of Labour's 103,000 members voted, officials said.

Peretz has already said he will quit as defence minister regardless of the result. The new chairman is likely to take the post, which is reserved for the centre-left Labour faction under a coalition agreement with Olmert's centrist Kadima party.

The vote took place amid rocket attacks by Palestinian militants in Gaza. One such strike killed an Israeli yesterday in the Israeli own of Sderot, Peretz's hometown. Israel has countered the attacks with air raids against Gaza gunmen.

Voting continued for an extra hour in Sderot because of the disruption caused by earlier rocket attacks. However, it was unlikely the result would greatly influence the overall outcome.

REUTERS CS SBA BST0109