Australian PM could lose seat at election - poll

CANBERRA, May 28 (Reuters) Australia's conservative prime minister, John Howard, not only faces defeat at elections later this year but both he and heir apparent Peter Costello could lose their seats in parliament, a new poll analysis found today.

The analysis of AC Nielsen polls by Fairfax newspapers today said the government could lose 49 of its 87 seats in the lower house, with Howard, Costello and another leadership hopeful, Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull, all vulnerable.

After 11 years in power, and with elections due within six months, opinion polls show support for Howard's coalition at around its lowest since before he won office in 1996.

But opposition leader Kevin Rudd played down the surge in support for his centre-left Labor party, saying Labor had only won government from opposition twice since World War Two.

''Pigs might fly,'' Rudd told a radio reporter when asked about the polls. ''Look, there is a mood for change in Australia. But I know history is against the Labor party.'' The Reuters Poll Trend on May 23 found Labor with a 16.9-point lead over the government on a two-party basis, where minority party votes are distributed to the major parties to ultimately decide an election outcome.

Labor needs to pick up 16 more seats to win power, but the Fairfax analysis said that if the poll results were replicated at the election, Labor could win 49 seats with 13 government ministers to lose their seats.

Howard warned his lawmakers last week that current polls suggested the party faced annihilation at the elections, due any time from August but expected for October or November.

Health Minister Tony Abbott, the government's chief strategist in the lower house, said he was concerned that voters were not paying close enough attention to the prospect of electing Rudd as prime minister.

''My concern is that the Australian people are walking towards this election with their eyes wide shut - that they are contemplating voting in a party which really has a whole lot of inconsistencies and contradictions at the heart of its policy,'' Abbott told Australian television.

Reuters SS GC1402