Thailand braced for leap into political unknown

By Nopporn Wong-Anan BANGKOK, May 27 (Reuters) Thailand is braced for a leap into the unknown this week as a court decides whether to disband the country's top two parties and ban their leaders from politics for breaching election laws.

Fears are widespread the verdicts on Wednesday may escalate the coup-prone nation's political uncertainty into chaos. Those fears were laid out starkly by King Bhumibol Adulyadej when he summoned top judges to warn them whatever decisions the Constitutional Tribunal made would upset somebody.

''Whatever the verdict will be, it will bring damage to the country. Whatever direction it will take, it will be erroneous,'' he said in a 15-minute speech to the judges.

The words of the monarch, who is genuinely revered, prompted the Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Democrat Party to promise restraint.

''There will be people who are unhappy with the verdicts and will protest on the street, but I don't think there will be hundreds of thousands,'' Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said.

But Surayud shortened a trip to China to be ready to handle the outcome of the verdicts, armed with an emergency decree empowering him to deploy troops on the streets and impose curfews.

The army has soldiers and tanks ready for action as the media count down to what they call ''Judgement Day''.

Akaratorn Chularat, one of the nine members of the Constitutional Tribunal, said the king's speech would not sway its decisions, but refused to say more despite media commentators coming up with as many as seven possible verdicts.

Everyone is waiting anxiously in the dark.

''You should ask fortune tellers or parrots,'' said economist Pasuk Phongpaichit, an author of several books on Thailand, when asked what the mostly likely outcome was.

RURAL SUPPORT Thaksin, who is living in exile in London and making frequent protestations he is done with the pursuit of office to general disbelief back home, and other top politicians could be banned from politics for five years.

Few doubt that the generals, who say they staged last September's coup to prevent a bloodbath as a street campaign against Thaksin mounted, want him out of politics ahead of a general election Surayud has promised in December.

However, banning the telecommunications billionaire would outrage the millions of people in the countryside who gave him two election landslide victories and still see him as the only politician who really cares about them.

Many analysts believe the generals want the verdict to complete their coup against Thaksin, whom they accused of abuse of power and presiding over rampant corruption, charges he denies.

If Thai Rak Thai were not disbanded, the justification for ousting Thaksin would be undermined, they say.

About 170 members of the executive committees of Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats face five-year bans from politics, if the tribunal rules that both parties violated election laws in an inconclusive general election last year which was annulled later.

If they are removed from the political area, the question is who would emerge from the elections as Thailand's new leadership, assuming they happen with opposition widespread to a new draft constitution due to go to a referendum in September.

Speculation has focussed on a trio of aged former prime ministers with less than stellar reputations.

''Basically, elections would be meaningless without those politicians,'' Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, one of those who could be barred.

Independent political analyst Prayad Hongtongkhum said hopes now rested on the Constitutional Tribunal banning a relatively small number of individuals and leaving the parties intact.

''Just imagine, Thailand without those politicians, many of whom have served the country for years, how badly the nation will be battered'' if all 170 were banned, he said.

REUTERS GT ND1105