Philippine vote trends against Arroyo, for now

MANILA, May 16 (Reuters) A groundswell of opposition to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is emerging in early trends in the Philippine congressional elections, although she is in no danger of losing her grip on office, analysts said today.

According to several polls, the top leaders in the race for 12 seats in the Senate are mostly from the opposition and include a navy lieutenant who is in jail on charges of mutiny and an attempted coup in 2003.

Lieutenant Antonio Trillanes was not allowed to campaign publicly for Monday's election, but his platform was unashamedly anti-Arroyo.

''There are no more reasons for her to stay,'' the 35-year-old told reporters who interviewed him at a military prison last week. ''If you want to really serve our people, she must be removed first.'' On top of the polls is another opposition politician, Francis Escudero, who is 37.

''It simply means that the issue remains President Arroyo her legitimacy, and the perception of her inability to govern well, especially in the handling of the economy,'' said Benito Lim, a professor of political science at the University of the Philippines, of the early trends.

''Our young voters look at Trillanes and Escudero as the model for future politicians. They are very clear with their platform, they do not like President Arroyo, they question her legitimacy, they believe she is politicking instead of doing her job.'' Less than 10 per cent of the Senate votes have been tallied, and it will be weeks before final results are known. Arroyo's allies are also tipped to sweep elections to the House of Representatives and to local government posts.

Early polls, however, are showing six opposition, two independents and only four administration candidates in the top 12 for the Senate. But analysts say Senate elections are based on personalities while the House is decided by bread-and-butter local issues.

PATRONAGE Mario Taguiwalo, president of the National Institute for Policy Studies, said the government would do well in the House, because the administration could always offer more in terms of patronage.

''We haven't had an opposition House of Representatives for many different administrations,'' he said. ''They usually are allied to the administration.'' Arroyo herself did not contest these elections and the only threat to her before her term ends in 2010 would have been the possibility of the opposition getting at least one-third of the seats in the House and mounting an impeachment motion.

''I don't think that was ever in the cards,'' said Taguiwalo.

''The numbers even at the candidates' stage weren't there.'' In the previous chamber, the opposition already held a majority in the Senate, allowing them to block administration-sponsored bills.

But the trends this year, and the possibility of Trillanes winning, are a slap in the face for the administration and underline Arroyo's unpopularity. Government critics who have accused Arroyo of cheating in the 2004 presidential elections fear she could do so again.

Lim, the professor, said officials could manipulate votes in the later stages of counting in a process called ''dagdag-bawas'', or addition and subtraction.

The process involves corrupt election officials subtracting votes from one candidate and adding them on to another candidate's tally.

''The ruling coalition has the resources to deploy up to two million votes to spur a last-minute victory for its people,'' wrote commentator Tony Lopez in The Manila Times.

''I will concede the elections are credible if the navy renegade Trillanes makes it as a senator.'' REUTERS CS HS0954