Blair suffers in elections, risks losing Scotland

ABERDEEN, Scotland, May 4 (Reuters) British Prime Minister Tony Blair's party risked losing control of the Scottish parliament to a pro-independence rival today and his government also suffered losses in local elections.

Yesterday's elections to councils in England, the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly were the last chance for 39 million voters to give their verdict on Blair's decade in power.

Blair's popularity has slumped due to the Iraq war and a series of political scandals, and he is expected to announce next week he will leave office by July. Finance minister Gordon Brown, a 56-year-old Scot, is almost certain to succeed him.

With results likely to dribble in throughout today it was too early to call the Scottish parliament vote but there were clear signs of a swing to the Scottish National Party (SNP).

With 74 of the 129 seats decided the SNP gained 12 and Labour lost seven. Opinion polls had suggested the SNP, which wants independence from Britain, could oust Labour as the biggest party in the parliament.

Labour had braced itself for a drubbing in the council elections in England and its share of the vote was projected at 27 per cent.

Local polls are not always a reliable indicator for parliamentary elections, however. Blair's government slumped to a record low of 26 per cent in 2004 but still won a parliamentary election the following year.

The opposition Conservatives took comfort from a BBC projection that showed its share of the national vote had risen to 41 percent, above a 40-per cent threshold deemed necessary to win a parliamentary election.

In England, with results in from 132 of the 312 councils up for grabs, the Conservatives gained 15 and Labour lost five.

''Not a brilliant night for us but certainly not a brilliant night for (Conservative leader) David Cameron. He's not got the surge he needs to sweep us out of power,'' said Labour Party chairman Hazel Blears.

Blair has been Labour's most successful leader, winning three parliamentary elections in a row. But polls suggest voters have lost trust in him since he took Britain into the Iraq war.

SCOTLAND ON A KNIFE EDGE SNP leader Alex Salmond has pledged to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in 2010 if his party wins control of the Edinburgh parliament.

''There is a wind of change blowing through Scottish politics,'' Salmond said after winning his seat.

The Scottish vote was marred by hitches. Voters complained that tens of thousands of votes had been rejected because people were confused by complex ballot papers. Counting in some major constituencies was delayed by computer scanning glitches.

''It's totally unacceptable in a democratic society,'' said Salmond.

Labour, which defends Scotland's 300-year-old union with England, had said uncertainty created by the SNP's plan for a referendum on independence could damage Scotland's economy.

The devolved Scottish parliament, set up in 1999, has powers over areas such as health and education.

Labour was facing its worst ever result in Wales, where there is also a devolved assembly, but was still on track to remain the largest single party. With results in from 52 of the 60 seats, Labour had lost three.

REUTERS KK VV1436