Media hype in Pakistan on Musharraf's uniform

Islamabad, Apr 26: Pakistan's military ruler Pervez Musharraf will shed his uniform, but only after being elected as President by the incumbent assemblies in their fading days, while Pakistan Peoples Party(PPP) Chairperson Benazir Bhutto will return home, but after the elections, a local media report claimed today.

This is indicated by the understandings reached between the two sides during their negotiations for a deal, the English-language newspaper The Nation said in a news analysis.

Since these and other points of convergence are acceptable without being very satisfying for both, any formal deal on power-sharing is highly unlikely.

The two have been thrown together by certain brutal realities which neither can wash away. Yet there are important forces also acting which neither can ignore. Therefore, more of a deal is not very likely, and both have come to accept that.

The factors acting upon Musharraf in his decision-making process are primarily ones of timing.

He cannot give up the uniform until the tenures of the current Chairman Joint Chiefs and deputy army chief end. If he does it before, he might create heart-burning among whichever officers lose out, whether incumbents or those whose promotion prospects would be blocked, said the paper.

He specifically has in mind how extensions for two lieutenant-generals by former army chief Gen Abdul Waheed adversely affected his own career, and would not like to do the same to anyone else. It makes most sense, purely from the services' point of view, for him, the deputy army chief and the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee(JCSC) to retire together, with a new Chairman and a full-fledged COAS taking over.

Further, there is a legal issue, though it is not clear whether he has been advised of it. Under the President (Holding Another Office)Act, while he has a strong legal case for eligibility for a fresh term if he remains in uniform, paradoxically, if he doffs it, he might fall under the mischief of the two-year restriction on retired officials contesting elections.

Ironically, once elected, he can give up the uniform an hour after taking oath, or carry on in uniform till the end.

Importantly, both his election and the retirements of the current Chairman and VCOAS fall within the same timeframe. The election must take place between September 16 and October 15, the retirements are scheduled for October 8. A good time, therefore, would be at that time.

However, then other issues come into play, such as the general election that must occur between December 1 and January 15, 2008, more likely towards the latter. While there is no technical problem, going into the election without his uniform is a highly risky electoral tactic, and could well backfire. This is not a risk he will take.

Meanwhile, the risk that he is willing to take, is that of letting the Chief Justice's reference prolong into the election season, which could be seen as starting in September. His gut feeling is that with their focus elsewhere, people would cause a problem, but it would fizzle out soon. Some analysts would say that it could have the opposite effect. As even one ruling party official admitted, "People use their ballots to vent anger".

"This is not a good issue to take into the election. It would be better dealt with well before that, so that its fallout could be handled." Musharraf's failure to strike a deal with Benazir was primarily because she was not willing to spark off a debilitating and acrimonious semi-rebellion within the party by entering into a formal arrangement with him.

Senior PPP leaders unanimously feel that a deal would be suicidal.

Benazir is said to have told some protesting party stalwarts that she was not stupid enough to make a deal with a 'dead horse.' Mian Nawaz Sharif's rigid stance, while no doubt admirable for its being principled, has also served to make it morally impossible for Benazir to do a deal on her own. His party seems to be counting on the PPP doing a deal, getting tarnished, and then floating back home in Benazir's slipstream when she returns.

Under these circumstances, Musharraf has to ensure that he does not entirely alienate his main political allies, the Chaudhris of Gujrat and the Mohajir Quami Movement(MQM). While the MQM can take the PPP or leave it, PML chief Chaudhry Shujat Hussain and his brothers see the PPP as a windstorm that would blow down their house of cards.

Their main claim to support is enjoying the President's (and the military's) favour. If the PPP come fully on board, the Chaudhris will lose many supporters.

So what does Musharraf have to deliver? A relatively fair election, in which the PPP gets to translate the apparent groundswell in its favour into seats. No federal interference (that is, from the intelligence agencies), though the Chaudris get a free hand in the Punjab, where they will use the local administrative levers, which are quite effective in their own right.

What does Benazir have to do? Nothing. That is the beauty of it, from the PPP point of view. She just has to make a lot of noise when the President comes up for re-election. Resigning from the assemblies (but not the Senate) at that point would mean a sacrifice of a couple of weeks as members, and would also guarantee Musharraf's election. Then take part in the coming elections 'under protest.' Meanwhile, the cases against her abroad are dropped quietly, while National Accountability Bureau(NAB) of Pakistan makes much noise about those at home. After the election, Benazir returns.

UNI