Abducted? Defected? Israelis mull missing Iranian

JERUSALEM, March 6 (Reuters) Israeli security experts gave some credence to Iran's statement today that one of its former defence ministers may have been kidnapped by Western spies, but also suggested the missing ex-official had defected.

Israel has reason to be interested in Ali Reza Asgari, who disappeared while visiting Turkey last month. Turkish newspaper Hurriyet said in an unsourced report that Asgari was involved in Iran's nuclear programme, which Israel considers a major threat.

US officials, at the forefront of Western efforts to curb a programme that Iran insists is peaceful, have at times said their work is circumscribed by lack of viable intelligence.

''A man with nuclear information would be a valuable asset for the CIA and Mossad,'' said Alon Ben-David, Israel analyst for Jane's Defence Weekly, referring to US and Israeli foreign spy services.

''He could be worth kidnapping, despite the risks.'' Iran did not give details on Asgari's career. But the Iranian chief of police was quoted as saying that he may have been snatched ''because of his Defence Ministry background''.

While Israeli and U.S. officials declined comment, a Mossad veteran voiced doubt that Asgari, 63, had been abducted.

''Espionage kidnappings went out of style after the Cold War,'' said Gad Shimron, a retired Mossad field agent.

''It's one thing to wage quiet proxy campaigns against your enemies, but going all the way and grabbing a government-level player is an act of war. It could have happened, but I doubt anyone wants that level of escalation at this point in time.'' CAME IN FROM THE COLD? Shimron said Turkish media reports suggested that Asgari had defected. According to Hurriyet, the Iranian vanished after checking into an Istanbul hotel room that had been reserved from him by two foreigners. Milliyet newspaper quoted Turkish intelligence as saying Asgari opposed the Iranian government.

''It sounds to me very much like he turned up for a debriefing, or even to 'come out of the cold,''' Shimron said.

Menashe Amir, an Israeli analyst of Iranian affairs, said he had information indicating that Asgari's family was with him.

''According to part of the information, his wife and children managed to leave Iran before his disappearance,'' Amir told Israel's Army Radio, without elaborating on his sources.

''It's very possible that he decided to defect,'' Amir said.

A major Mossad action involving Iranians would require the approval of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who has been been at pains to reduce open tensions with Tehran that might distract from the US-led diplomatic campaign against it.

But Ben-David said that Israel might consider Asgari a prize worth the price of potentially embarrassing Turkey, one of the few Muslim countries to maintain ties with the Jewish state.

Britain's Daily Telegraph reported that Asgari had served as a military adviser in southern Lebanon, where an Israeli airman, Ron Arad, was captured by Iran-linked militiamen after bailing out of his crippled warplane in 1986. Arad later vanished.

Israel accuses Iran of holding Arad. Iran denies it.

In what appeared to be a precaution against any reprisals by Iranian agents, Israel has ordered security at its embassies abroad to be beefed up, Israeli diplomatic sources said.

REUTERS MS ND1858