No rest, heir for North Korea birthday boy Kim

SEOUL, Feb 15 (Reuters) Rainbows fill the sky and frost flickers like fireworks as North Korea prepares for the birthday of its ''Dear Leader'', who is reaching an age where many retire but is reluctant to tip his hand as to who will succeed him.

Kim Jong-il turns 65 tomorrow, a birthday called the ''nation's greatest auspicious day'' by state media which is awash with stories praising a man it says can beat the United States with his ''iron will, grit and extraordinary stratagem''.

Analysts said the North's official media does not mention Kim's three known sons because talk of succession is taboo in the world's only communist dynasty.

''Succession is going to be the moment of the greatest vulnerability for the regime. In terms of regime survival, it is the biggest dilemma that Kim Jong-il is facing,'' said Peter Beck, a Korea affairs expert with the International Crisis Group.

''It is certainly the right time to be making concrete plans for his succession. The problem is that none of his sons are old enough or have distinguished themselves in any way,'' Beck said.

North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung was 62 when he tipped Kim Jong-il as his successor, giving his son decades to build trust with the country's powerful military.

Even when the Kim Il-sung died in 1994 at the age of 82, it took his son several years to emerge from his father's shadow as the clear leader.

Kim's eldest son Jong-nam, 35, likely fell out of favour, analysts said, after he was deported from Japan in 2001 on a fake passport in a quest to see Tokyo Disneyland.

The portly Jong-nam has apparently been living in Macau and turned up in Beijing this week where he told reporters he was heading to Pyongyang for his father's birthday.

The second son, Jong-chol, believed to be 25, may be suffering from a hormonal disorder. He was apparently filmed by Japan's Fuji TV last year as he travelled through Europe with a female companion following the concert tour of Eric Clapton.

The youngest, Jong-un, thought to be 23, is supposedly the most capable of the three brothers, but due to Confucian tradition where seniority is key, he is a dark horse.

KIM IN CONTROL ''I really do not think he (Kim Jong-il) is worried about his grip on power, but as a typical totalitarian leader, he always thinks of his stability and personal power,'' said Park Young-ho, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Park said the view among analysts is that Kim is not interested now in sharing the limelight with his anointed successor.

A South Korean intelligence report released in December said if Kim dies without a clear successor, one of the country's senior generals would eventually take over and the North Korean system would continue in what would likely by a smooth transfer.

Kim may have increased his standing by a deal his country reached earlier this week to shut down the North's sole nuclear reactor in exchange for energy aid, analysts said.

Official media has already painted the deal as a victory for North Korea over the United States.

In the days before Kim's birthday, it has also spoken of the beauty of Mount Paektu where propaganda says Kim was born.

''The sun rises over the sunrise rock, turning Jong Il Peak red and the flying frost in Sobaeksu Valley shines brightly in various colours and some times forms rainbows,'' its KCNA news agency said this week.

''This scenery leads the viewers to ecstasy''.

REUTERS BDP RK1415