Risk factors mark out Britain as terrorist target

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) The war in Iraq and its radicalising effect on a fast-growing number of homegrown militants are the explosive ingredients that make Britain acutely vulnerable to terrorist attacks, security analysts say.

An alleged conspiracy this week to kidnap and kill a British Muslim soldier was the sixth that authorities say they have foiled since suicide bombers hit London in 2005.

While the cases have yet to come to trial, that pattern suggests Britain faces a greater terrorist threat on home soil than any other Western country, including the United States.

It resembles many other European countries in its struggle to integrate a large Muslim population; it differs from them in the extent to which its policies, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, are identified with those of Washington.

''British policy in the war on terror is increasing insecurity in Britain and there's no way out of that, however much the government wants to deny it,'' said Paul Rogers, a security specialist at Bradford University.

Swedish terrorism expert Magnus Ranstorp said: ''In terms of scope, severity and ingenuity, the threat within the UK is qualitatively different from the rest of Europe.'' Security analysts regard the latest operation, in which police arrested nine men in central England yesterday, as further evidence of the radicalising effect of the Iraq war on Muslims living in Britain.

Police declined to comment publicly on the alleged plot -- to kidnap a British Muslim soldier, torture and behead him and post the macabre footage on the Internet.

But the idea, if true, comes straight from the tool kit of the late militant leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, who personally beheaded several Western hostages before abandoning the tactic after al Qaeda leaders found it repugnant.

HOMEGROWN RADICALS Even before this week's developments, British officials have been voicing concern that the virulence of homegrown radicals sometimes exceeds that of the groups who inspire them.

''When we have brought Hamas people over to the UK and they've talked to people in the Muslim community, they've said 'My God, those people are hardline, aren't they?''' said a British security source.

Grievances are fanned by readily available militant propaganda.

In a video statement broadcast on December 20, al Qaeda's no 2 Ayman al-Zawahri accused Britain of persecuting Islam for centuries, saying: ''Isn't it the one who used to occupy most Islamic lands?'' Intelligence officials say the principal threat has shifted in the past four years. Where once they focused on UK-based foreign nationals, they now increasingly find themselves investigating British citizens, like the four young Muslims who killed 52 people on London's transport system in July 2005.

That case and others have also thrown the spotlight on Britain's large south Asian community and its links with Pakistan, which despite strong efforts to root out al Qaeda is still viewed by security officials as a base for providing militants with inspiration and training.

Britain's large pool of alienated Muslim youth has made it an easier place than the United States to recruit volunteers and prepare attacks.

Reflecting that, the US government threat assessment stands at level three (elevated) while Britain's has been stuck at level two (severe - an attack is highly likely) except when it rose to level one in August with the discovery of an alleged plot to bomb transatlantic planes.

Militants ''see Britain riding pillion with the United States.

Britain is so closely intertwined with US policy. It is the second-best (target) but it's pretty close to the first,'' said Ranstorp.

''The whole combustible mixture of these factors -- the Iraq war, Pakistan, polarisation within the UK -- is a dangerous cocktail and it's difficult to handle...There's a cascade of threats surfacing and sooner or later one of these things is going to slip through.'' REUTERS SP VV2147