Likely best film Oscar nominees seem easy to pick

LOS ANGELES, Jan 22 (Reuters) Martin Scorsese's crime thriller ''The Departed'' is almost certain to grab a slot in the Oscar race for best film, along with the musical ''Dreamgirls'' and the comedy ''Little Miss Sunshine,'' when Academy Award nominations are announced on Tuesday.

Oscar pundits say those three films are likely to square off against ''Babel,'' a saga of clashing cultures, and ''The Queen,'' a portrait of the British royal family, in the competition for Hollywood's highest honors.

All five already have been nominated for best picture by two of Hollywood's most influential trade groups -- the Directors Guild of America and the Producers Guild of America -- whose picks usually predict Oscar sentiment.

''This year we've seen unprecedented agreement among the guild awards for five front-runners for best picture,'' said Tom O'Neil, awards columnist for the Web site TheEnvelope.com.

''It's a fairly easy year to predict the nominations.'' ''Babel'' and ''Dreamgirls,'' the film adaptation of a Broadway hit loosely based on the Motown music group Diana Ross&the Supremes, gained momentum last week by winning Golden Globe awards for best film drama and best comedy or musical.

And ''Little Miss Sunshine,'' a low-budget road comedy about an unlikely young beauty queen and her quirky family, got a boost as the surprise choice for best picture at the Producers Guild awards on Saturday night.

DARK HORSE CANDIDATES But O'Neil said that any of the five presumed Oscar favorites could find themselves bumped off the list for best film by one of several dark horse candidates, including the comic sensation ''Borat'' and Clint Eastwood's Japanese-language war film ''Letters from Iwo Jima.'' That is because the Oscar ballot system makes it possible for a film to land one of the five best-picture nominations by garnering support from one-sixth plus one of the votes cast by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

''The point is, all you need is a small, passionate core of support to get a nomination. You don't need the bulk of the academy,'' O'Neil told Reuters.

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