Few voices pressing Bush to leave Iraq immediately
Washington, Jan 10: As President George W Bush charted a new course for the Iraq war, there were calls to add troops and withdraw troops, but few voices counseled the US leader to pull American forces out now.
After weeks of study, Bush is due to announce todaya new Iraq strategy that a defense official said would increase US troops in Iraq by about 20,000 with most going to violence-plagued Baghdad.
The plan also calls for Iraqi forces to take responsibility for security in all of Iraq's 18 provinces by November, he said.
Politicians, experts and policymakers said a hasty US withdrawal could provoke a bloodbath of ethnic strife, create the conditions for a broader West Asia war, destroy US credibility in the region and hand al Qaeda a huge victory in the war on terrorism.
''If the United States were to withdraw or redeploy from the battle, we would leave Iraq in shambles,'' Sens Joseph Lieberman and Lindsey Graham wrote in a letter to Bush, warning such moves ''would in all probability trigger a full-blown civil war.'' Only a few groups rejected the idea that US forces could not leave Iraq immediately without placing the people and the region in jeopardy.
''We do not accept the notion that troops cannot be withdrawn immediately,'' said Sarah Sloan, a spokeswoman for the anti-war ANSWER Coalition. ''Our view is that it is the US military presence in Iraq that is causing the problem and when they leave that will resolve the problem.'' She pointed out the similarities with Vietnam, when a phased withdrawal actually resulted in an escalation of the conflict.
But calls for immediate withdrawal were rare. Even passionate advocates of withdrawal generally spoke in terms of pulling out U.S.
forces in months, not weeks or days, and some staunch critics of the Bush war effort said unwinding the US commitment in Iraq in a prudent manner would require a year to 18 months.
Phased
Withdrawal?
''The
question
is
not
should
you
or
should
you
not
withdraw.
The
question
is
how
quickly,''
said
Lawrence
Korb,
an
expert
on
strategic
studies
at
the
Center
for
American
Progress
think
tank.
''I
think
people
who
want
to
get
out
talk
about
a
phased
withdrawal.''
He
said
that
would
take
about
18
months.
''That gives you time to get out in an orderly way,'' Korb said. ''It gives the Iraqis a chance to adjust to us going and may give them the incentive to do what they need to do.'' Some proponents of withdrawal advocated a shorter time frame. Rep Dennis Kucinich, an Ohio Democrat and longtime opponent of the war, said he believed US forces could pull out within three months once the president made the policy decision, but he dismissed the idea of immediate withdrawal.
''The problem with ... talking about an immediate withdrawal is that it conjures up images of leaving the Iraqi people defenseless, and I don't think anybody's talking about that,'' said Kucinich, who is circulating a plan calling for US troops to be replaced by an international security force.
''I actually haven't heard anyone but a very few marginal voices saying that we should withdraw immediately,'' said Mary Habeck, an expert in strategic studies at the Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
''We're actually not losing, we're winning,'' she added.
''Withdrawing now, though, will ensure a loss.'' Habeck said pulling out in the present circumstances would damage US credibility in the region, hand al Qaeda a victory in the war on terrorism and set the stage for a broader regional conflict, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Syria all feeling compelled to intervene in their own interests.
It could also trigger ethnic violence.
''To withdraw now would create a bloodbath on the scale of Rwanda or Bosnia before we intervened there,'' she said. ''And I don't know any good reason then, if that's going to create more of a bloodbath, why we should withdraw now.''
Reuters
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