Japan to revise down fertility rate forecast

TOKYO, Dec 17: Japan now sees its fertility rate staying at record lows over the next few decades, contrary to initial estimates for a slight increase, a newspaper reported today.

Japan's fertility rate -- the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime -- fell to an all-time low of 1.26 in 2005.

The government now expects the rate to fall slightly to around 1.2 by 2050, a revision from forecasts made four years ago that it would stabilise at around 1.39 from 2030, the Nihon Keizai said.

The revision, based on signs more women are delaying marriage and child-bearing, will be released in a report by the end of the year, the newspaper said. An increase in divorces was also cited as a factor.

Japan, which has the world's highest proportion of old people and the lowest proportion of young people, has seen its population shrink since peaking in 2004. It now stands at around 127 million.

The declining population has raised concern over the country's longer-term economic growth potential and the government's ability to fund its ballooning pension requirements. Demographers say a fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to keep a population from falling.

REUTERS