Hamas may have edge in Gaza showdown with Fatah

JERUSALEM, Dec 17: Hamas's well-equipped and organised forces would have an edge over those loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah if a Palestinian civil war erupted in Gaza, diplomats and analysts said.

They said the fighters in Hamas's so-called executive force and the Islamist group's armed wing, Izz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades, would be more committed in a protracted battle. Densely-populated Gaza, Hamas's stronghold, would likely be the main battleground.

Fighting between the rival Palestinian factions worsened today after Abbas called for new elections, infuriating Hamas, which took control of the government in March after defeating Fatah at the polls.

Analysts said the fighting could be seen as a proxy war between the United States, which is trying to build up Abbas's presidential guard, and Iran, which supports Hamas.

''What distinguishes them (Hamas's executive force) is they have a higher level of political commitment and loyalty to a cause, rather than just to a leader,'' Mouin Rabbani, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, said.

Senior Israeli officials said their decision last week to prevent Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas from bringing 35 million dollars into Gaza stemmed in part from concerns the cash was earmarked for the executive force, a charge Hamas denies.

Washington wants the withheld funds redirected to Abbas's presidential guard and U S Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said last week the administration, pending congressional approval, would provide tens of millions of dollars to strengthen Abbas's forces.

Rabbani said any conflict was ''going to be seen, at least in part, as a proxy war, certainly by the United States and by Iran.''

With help from Washington, Abbas's presidential guard has grown to nearly 4,000 members. Despite its relatively small size, it is considered to be the best equipped and trained force in the Palestinian territories.

HAMAS HAS ADVANTAGE

Hamas has rapidly expanded its executive force to nearly 6,000 members and has vowed to add more fighters in future, not including the thousands under its armed wing.

''We know the executive force is quite effective, well organised, while the Fatah forces have been substantially depleted'' except for the presidential guard, said a senior Western diplomat involved in security matters.

Another Western diplomat who has worked with Abbas's office on security matters said Hamas had an advantage fighting a war in Gaza because Fatah has a less centralised command structure.

Analysts said the larger security services loyal to Fatah, including preventive security, have deteriorated since Hamas came to power in March.

Preventive security has been hard hit by a string of recent assassinations and by Washington's decision to work exclusively with the presidential guard, which has no ties to Hamas.

Zakaria al-Qaq, a security expert at al-Quds University, said fighting between Hamas and Fatah forces could spiral out of control because of competing allegiances between factions and clans within Gaza society.

''There aren't defined boundries. You have overlappying clan loyalties, revenge between families. If you want to stop it, it won't be easy,'' he said.

Overt Western assistance for the presidential guard could also backfire by allowing Hamas to paint Abbas as an Arab leader serving U.S. interests, al-Qaq said. ''It will not help the image of Mahmoud Abbas,'' he added.

Since coming to power in March, Hamas has hand-carried at least 80 million dollars into Gaza through the Rafah border crossing, diplomats who monitors the crossing say.

First deployed by the Hamas-led government on the streets of Gaza in May, the executive force is built mostly from members of the Brigades and includes members from allied militant factions.

But Hamas won't disclose where the executive force receives it money, arms and equipment.

Reuters