Forecaster predicts 2007 US hurricane season

London, Dec 8: The United States, which has emerged from thisyear's hurricane season largely unscathed, should brace itself for apotentially devastating hurricane season next year, a leading windstormforecaster warned.

A long-range forecast for next year issued by Tropical Storm Risk,a London-based forecaster, yesterday predicted an above-normal Atlantichurricane season with a strong probability that more hurricanes willslam into the United States than usual, based on average figures forthe period 1950 to 2006.

It said that 16 tropical storms were likely to occur in theAtlantic basin, nine of which would be hurricanes and four likely to beso-called intense hurricanes.

Five tropical storms are likely to hit America, of which two will be hurricanes, TSR said.

It anticipated a combination of conditions that would indicate a higher-than-average hurricane season.

Next year the trade winds, which blow westwards from the tropicalAtlantic and Caribbean Sea, will be weaker than normal, while the seatemperatures between west Africa and the Caribbean, where manyhurricanes form, will be warmer than normal, TSR said.

For those who may be inclined to disregard such ominous warningsfollowing this year's widely inaccurate predictions of another stringof major storms similar to those that ravaged the US coast in 2004 and2005, TSR said an unusual mix of conditions led to fewer windstormsthan were predicted.

''The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presenceof considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August andSeptember, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and thereforetropical storm development, and to the unexpected onset of El Ninoconditions from mid-September,'' TSR said.

''There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before,'' it added.

Reuters