US, Philippines apply 'soft power' against militants

ZAMBOANGA CITY, Philippines, Dec 4: The map in the US briefing room looks like standard-issue military, but the colour-coded markings are not shorthand for fighting units, defensive positions, or future lines of attack.

Rather, the patchwork of shaded circles and ovals across the figure-eight-shaped island of Jolo bespeak a different kind of warfare, one that Washington hopes will finally end the Muslim insurgency that has long plagued the southern Philippines.

''This is not about firing shots. This is about changing the conditions that give rise to terrorism,'' said Colonel David Maxwell, commander of the US Joint Special Forces Task Force.

Where traditional tactics might dictate heavy deployment of troops, or destruction of local villages that can harbour insurgents, Filipino and US planners seek to use ''soft power'' to win over local residents and deny the rebels a place to hide.

As a result, the Task Force's briefing room map is dotted with circles -- strategically placed across the island to cut off suspected enemy positions. Each denotes a new school or road, a medical mission to a remote village, a water project.

Longer-term programs include reform of the Philippines security forces, large-scale economic development and political empowerment of the disenfranchised Muslim minority in this predominantly Catholic country.

US officials say their approach to Jolo, in the southern Sulu Archipelago, is based on a successful turnaround that began in 2002 on neighbouring Basilan.

Today that island, which once tied down 15 Filipino battalions, requires just two. A local fast-food chain opened an outlet there in a widely hailed sign of ''normality''.

A DIFFICULT TEST

But sceptics say Jolo might not prove so pliant, and some are increasingly impatient for outright victory over the Abu Sayyaf Group, Islamic militants turned kidnappers for ransom, and their allies.

''This has dragged on for years and years and has involved a hell of a lot of money,'' said US-based analyst Zachary Abuza, speaking by telephone from Boston.

Abuza blames restrictions on US troops, who are barred by the Filipino constitution from direct combat, and corruption in the armed forces for what he says is a lack of tangible progress. The facts on the ground also pose a problem. Jolo is home to the archipelago's dominant warrior tribe, the Tausugs; it is awash in guns, from World War Two vintage to the latest models; it is far poorer than Basilan; and resentment at America's past colonial domination of the region still runs deep.

It also features treacherous terrain that makes road-building and other projects that much harder. In places, covering 500 metres on foot can take a soldier hours, while thick foliage provides plenty of hiding places.

Most important, Jolo has emerged as the last stronghold of the Abu Sayyaf, the Philippines' most dangerous militant group.

A handful of Indonesian comrades wanted in connection with the Bali bombings and other attacks back home have also sought shelter on the island.

''Basilan was a huge success, but Jolo makes its neighbour look like child's play,'' said one Western military analyst who asked not to be identified because he works closely with his Filipino counterparts.

THE MEASURE OF SUCCESS?

According to Filipino intelligence sources, the Abu Sayyaf has seen its leadership cut off from the rank-and-file, some of whom have begun to surrender quietly rather than face life on the run through unforgiving jungle.

But authorities also acknowledge that the remaining leaders and their Indonesian allies from Jemaah Islamiah, Southeast Asia's biggest militant group, have highly tuned survival skills, and they have been busy building bombs for future attacks.

''Our reporting suggests that until recently the Indonesians were daily making IEDs (improvised explosive devices),'' said one intelligence source, adding that recent military pressure had likely disrupted the bomb-making operations.

''We believe there are about 30 active Indonesians or other Southeast Asians with ASG, about eight to 10 of whom are travelling with (Abu Sayyaf chief Khadaffi) Janjalani,'' the source said.

Overall, the Abu Sayyaf group is estimated at about 250 active fighters.

Among those being hunted on Jolo is the Indonesian militant Dulmatin, wanted in connection with the Bali bombings. The security forces recently detained his wife, but Dulmatin remains elusive.

US and Filipino officials bristle at the notion that the true mark of success in Jolo is the arrest or killing of Janjalani, Dulmatin and other so-called high-value targets.

''Why haven't we found bin Laden?'' retorts one US officer.

''The goal here is keep the bad guys off the battlefield, whether we kill them, capture them, or isolate them so they can't move.'' Still, members of the US mission know that they -- not their Filipino hosts -- will be judged on the success or failure of the mission.

''We are the 800-pound gorilla in the room,'' said one senior officer.

Reuters