UK set to announce decision on nuclear arsenal

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) Britain's government will announce its decision on Monday on the future of its nuclear arsenal, officials said today, and analysts said it would probably back new or updated submarine-launched missiles.

The government appears to have ruled out scrapping nuclear weapons, the defence analysts said.

Britain has submarine-launched Trident nuclear missiles and buying a completely new system could cost up to 25 billion pounds ( billion).

But there is also the option of using cheaper cruise missiles or enhancing the current system to extend its life beyond 2024.

''They seem to have come down to a submarine-launched nuclear weapon of some sort to replace Trident,'' said Andrew Brookes, aerospace specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies thinktank.

Prime Minister Tony Blair's cabinet will hold a special meeting on nuclear weapons on Monday morning and a policy document setting out the government's preferred option will be published later in the day, Blair's spokesman said.

Parliament will debate and vote on the issue early next year.

A decision to replace the existing Trident nuclear missile system will prompt a rebellion by some members of Blair's Labour Party but he is expected to be able to push through the decision with the backing of the opposition Conservatives.

During its years in the political wilderness in the 1980s, Labour was committed to unilateral nuclear disarmament.

Former leader Neil Kinnock scrapped the pledge in the late 1980s, but nuclear weapons remain a touchstone issue for some on the left of the party.

BLAIR BACKS NUCLEAR DETERRENT Blair and his likely successor, finance minister Gordon Brown, favour maintaining Britain's nuclear deterrent and Blair seems determined to settle the issue of Trident's successor before he steps down some time next year.

Ministers say decisions must be taken now if Britain is to replace the current system, consisting of Trident missiles carried aboard four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered submarines.

Defence analyst Charles Heyman said he was ''pretty sure'' the government would opt for a submarine-based option -- rather than nuclear weapons based on land or dropped from the air.

Heyman said the government could decide to modify the existing system to prolong its life. But he said service chiefs were pushing for a new nuclear deterrent because an update would only last a few years.

Government officials have lined up in recent weeks to warn that terrorist groups are seeking the know-how to plot nuclear strikes against Britain and that threat is unlikely to recede, sources close to the debate said on Thursday.

They say there is also a growing threat from states in unstable regions -- amid intense competition for natural resources -- and that these states may by 2024 develop nuclear technology.

North Korea recently carried out a nuclear test and the West accuses Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, although Tehran denies it. Opponents say nuclear weapons are unnecessary and a waste of money.

REUTERS PB RN2303