Castro health, future dominate 80th birthday event

HAVANA, Nov 27: A celebration this week of ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro's 80th birthday has turned into a high-stakes test of his health and political future as the world watches to see if he is well enough to attend.

After four months out of public view, the events starting on Tuesday may tell much about whether Castro is recovering from an undisclosed illness and can again govern the communist country he has led for nearly half a century.

Castro has been seen only in photos and videos since shortly before announcing July 31 he had intestinal surgery and temporarily put his brother Raul in control.

His gaunt appearance in an Oct. 28 government video led many to assume he is too ill to take back power.

The government has insisted otherwise, so this week's events, which culminate in a military parade on Saturday, are being closely watched as an indicator of the condition of the world's longest-serving leader.

Lately, officials have downplayed expectations he will join the celebration, but say he is recovering and will return to power eventually.

But a no-show or a brief appearance by a frail Castro will likely accelerate speculation he is fading into history, with the possibility that change will follow in one of the world's last remaining communist states.

''Fidel Castro would undoubtedly like to make a dramatic public appearance to reverse those expectations,'' said Dan Erikson of the Washington-based think tank Inter-American Dialogue.

He will have plenty of chances to do so at events that include a three-day colloquium on Castro, a ''Cuban gala,'' a concert, an art exhibition and the military parade in Havana's Revolution Square.

Only those closest to Castro know whether he is capable of it. US officials have said he may have terminal cancer, but admit they do not really know.

CELEBRATION POSTPONED

Castro turned 80 on Aug. 13, but put off a celebration planned for that day because it was too soon after his surgery. He chose to have it on December 2, the 50th anniversary of the day in 1956 when the yacht Granma brought him and his band of rebels from Mexico to launch their revolution against US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista.

It was widely assumed, possibly by Castro as well, he would be well and in power again by that time.

Castro has towered over Cuba since taking power in 1959 and becoming a world figure for his defiance of a hostile United States.

Cubans revere him in many ways, but there is discontent with his state-controlled economy which provides jobs that pay the average person 15 dollars a month.

The October 28 video shook the confidence of many Cubans that the only leader most have ever known will return to power. A common refrain is that even if he survives his illness, at 80 he no longer has the energy to rule.

''I'm only 50 and I couldn't do it. Time is against him,'' said store clerk Oswaldo Diaz.

They express no strong feelings for Raul Castro, who has been defense minister for 47 years but always in his older brother's shadow. Most say they hope a change in leadership will put more money in their pockets.

''Why can't they do what the Chinese have done?,'' said a taxi driver who gave his name only as Ernesto, referring to the economic liberalization of the Chinese communist government.

Many analysts and Havana-based diplomats believe Fidel Castro is unlikely to be more than a figurehead even if he survives.

''We think the regime is firmly in control. There is a succession in place, and Raul is the man in place,'' a Latin American diplomat said.

He brushed off a possible appearance by Fidel Castro as little more than ''an internal matter'' at this point.

But others are not ready to write off the bearded leader who has survived the attempts of ten US presidents to oust him, either by force, assassination or economic pressure.

''Clearly he is not the force he once was, but we have learned not to speculate when it comes to Fidel Castro,'' said a Western diplomat.

REUTERS