Regional risks push Japan into tighter US embrace

Tokyo, Nov 17: He won't be crooning Elvis Presley love songs like his maverick predecessor when he meets President George W Bush in Hanoi this weekend, but Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is just as eager for cosy ties with the United States.

''The Japan-US relationship is the foundation of Japan's national security and diplomatic policy,'' Abe told reporters today before leaving for Vietnam, the venue for a summit of leaders from Pacific rim nations.

''I'd like to built a relationship of trust with President Bush.'' With tensions high across East Asia following North Korea's October nuclear test, many in Washington and Tokyo see bilateral ties as more important than they have been in decades.

''In the face of the North's nuclear test, Japan has two options. One is the US-Japan alliance. The other is to obtain nuclear weapons,'' said Tadae Takubo, professor of international politics at Japan's Kyorin University.

Given the Japanese public's aversion to going nuclear, as the only country to have suffered atomic bomb attacks, there is no real alternative to beefing up US ties, Takubo said.

Prime Minister Abe's efforts to sweeten relations with South Korea and China may win him kudos in Washington after regional tensions mounted under his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi.

''Japan-US relations will get even better,'' said Kazuhisa Ogawa, a military analyst and adviser to Mr Abe. ''Japan is working on improving relations in East Asia, which is a good thing for the United States too.'' But there are potential risks ahead for the friendship of the world's two largest economies, whose leaders will share a working lunch on the sidelines of the summit in Vietnam, their first meeting since Abe took office in September.

Koizumi, a popular reformer who famously gave an impromptu singing performance during a visit with President Bush to Presley's former home in June, gained the US President's trust by agreeing in 2003 to a US request to send troops to Iraq.

With the Democratic Party triumph at the US congressional polls last week crippling President Bush and underlining doubts over the war itself, Japan may regret its enthusiasm, some commentators say.

''If a case like Iraq comes up again, Japan may be extremely cautious,'' said Kazuya Sakamoto, professor of international relations at Osaka University. DEPENDENCE Pacifist Japan's reliance on the US nuclear umbrella and ballistic missile defence programme, however, means it cannot afford any drastic foreign policy divergence from its main ally.

''The Japanese are far too dependent on the United States to allo a rift to develop,'' said Robert Karniol, Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defence Weekly. ''There can be differences in nuance and detail, but these are largely irrelevant,'' he added.

Although Washington and Tokyo appear in harmony on dealings with Pyongyang, a US change of tack could embarrass Abe, who built his support base by taking a hard line on North Korea and has touted his efforts to deepen ties with the United States.

President Bush has insisted that Washington will only deal with Pyongyang in the framework of six-party talks involving Japan as well as South Korea, China and Russia, while the Democrats under former president Bill Clinton took a more flexible line.

''If bilateral talks do take place, it will be a bit awkward for the Abe administration,'' said Takubo. ''They have been working on the assumption that bilateral talks will not happen.

It would be like pulling the rug out from under Japan.'' Another problem that could sour the Japan-US relationship, some analysts say, is a row over US troops based on the southern island of Okinawa, where local residents complain of crime, noise, pollution and accidents around the bases.

Despite the disagreements, fears that Japan might find itself relegated to the back-burner under a possible future Democratic Party president appear to be misplaced, analysts say.

''Especially with China's development, the United States must attach importance to Japan in terms of the balance of power in East Asia,'' said Sakamoto of Osaka University.

''It's not a question of sentiment, but of logical calculation,'' he added.

Reuters