Democrats won, but did the US middle class?

HOPETOWN, Ohio, Nov 15: Jenny Bagent considers herself a Democrat and knows she should be thrilled her party won control of Congress. But the mother of two is skeptical life is suddenly going to get better for ordinary Americans.

''Maybe I'm just too cynical. We hope things will change, but I'm not banking on it. Too many of these people have never even been middle class,'' said Bagent, 38, a hospital clerk.

The people she's referring to are America's newest Democratic lawmakers, who swept into power in America's congressional elections promising change in Iraq and new policies to help ordinary Americans.

While the vote was seen as a repudiation of Republican President George W Bush and the war in Iraq, Democrats also won many voters over with a pledge to cut taxes on the middle class and make health care and college more affordable.

In Ohio, where factory closures have devastated the economy, Democrat Sherrod Brown pledged to fight against ''job-killing'' free trade agreements. In Missouri, Claire McCaskill said she wants to ''restore the American dream for everyone,'' while in Pennsylvania, Bob Casey's simple pledge was to ''put middle-class families first.'' All three were elected to the US Senate, defeating incumbent Republicans and wresting control of Congress from Republicans for the first time in 12 years.

But such perennial promises from Democrats, who portray themselves as more of a party for the people than Republicans, may be easier to make than to keep, and already conservatives are raising the prospect of unrealized expectations.

''They now have an excellent opportunity, two years, to make good on the promises they are making,'' said Matt Moore, a senior analyst at the conservative National Center for Policy Analysis in Dallas.

''If they're able to deliver on some of those promises, then I think they're going to win even more converts for the next election. The trouble is it's a lot easier to say we're going to make life better than it is to get into Congress and actually make life better.''

MINDING THE MIDDLE

While Census data show about a third of American households earned between ,000 and ,000 a year in 2005, most Americans believe they are part of the middle class, and rare is the politician from either party who does not claim to speak for the ordinary American.

While in the past Republicans like Ronald Reagan and others have made inroads into the middle class by appealing to, for example, blue-collar conservatives, exit polls showed Democrats won middle class voters handily this year.

Fifty-eight percent of those making between 30,000 dollars and 50,000 dollars a year voted Democrat, compared with 41 percent who supported Republicans, and support was even stronger among the poor. In fact, Democrats won more than 50 per cent support from all income groups up to 150,000 dollars, exit polls show.

Tom Stanhope, a 59-year-old technician at the Kenworth truck plant outside Hopetown, Ohio, was one of the 56 per cent of Ohioans who cast a ballot for Sherrod Brown. ''They're killing the middle class,'' said Stanhope, pointing to the rising cost of everything from health insurance premiums to credit card interest charges. ''Wage increases haven't been the same in the last six or seven years.'' The failure of wages to keep pace with inflation in the six years since Bush took office is no doubt one of the weakest points in a national economy that has otherwise recovered strongly from the 2001 recession.

Economic growth has been solid, the unemployment rate is a low 4.4 per cent, the stock market is near record highs, and many Americans are sitting on housing wealth thanks to a boom only now beginning to cool, accomplishments Republicans believe should have given them a boost with voters.

But inflation has eaten away at household budgets. While average hourly earnings are up 19 per cent from 2000, the cost of college tuition is up 53 per cent, health care is 29 per cent more expensive and transportation costs 16 percent more.

Free trade, on the other hand, has helped cut the cost of a television in half, while clothing costs seven per cent less, according to Department of Labor statistics.

Hospital clerk Bagent knows rising prices too well. She says she's lucky she and her husband have health insurance, but they've struggled to save college money for their daughters, aged 13 and nine.

''There's never enough money,'' Bagent said. ''Every time we put some money aside, the car breaks down or the furnace quits.'' Andrea Batista Schlesinger, executive director of the liberal Drum Major Institute for Public Policy in New York, said the Democratic victory proved to both parties that acknowledging Americans are struggling economically is not a losing strategy.

Bush often accused Democrats of focusing on the negative when they brought up economic imbalances, and Batista Schlesinger said moderate Democrats were reluctant to abandon the optimism that politicians like to personify.

But she said an exit poll that showed 40 percent of voters believe their children's lives will be worse than life today hit home with lawmakers: ''They got the memo that their constituents want a frank conversation about the struggles they're facing.'' And while some voters may doubt the ability of the new Congress to bring real change to ordinary Americans, Batista Schlesinger said the first step to solving the middle class squeeze was admitting it existed.

''I don't necessarily think that the policy debates coming are going to be easy, but I think the very idea that we have a government that understands its role is to create policy that improves people's lives is a victory,'' she said.

REUTERS