Unexpected final bemuses bookies again

BERLIN, July 8 (Reuters) The last 10 World Cup finals have been contested by just six different teams yet bookmakers have a consistently unimpressive record in their quadrennial tournament predictions.

The ability of the leading nations to maintain their stranglehold on the final should simplify the task of forecasting who will be basking in glory every four years.

However, even when the field is seemingly so narrow, the business of forecasting remains fiendishly difficult.

Tomorrow s finalists France began this tournament as 14-1 shots and slipped to 25-1 after drawing their first two games against Switzerland and South Korea.

Their miserable performances in the 2002 event and in Euro 2004, their struggle through qualification for Germany, some woeful friendlies and an ageing squad all seemed to add up to a team who had peaked years ago.

Italy, bidding to win their fourth world title, had a better look about them but could still be backed at 10-1 before the first game of a tough Group E where Czech Republic and the United States were both ranked above them, according to FIFA.

Brazil, as always were the heavy 5-2 favourites with British bookmakers, followed by Argentina, Germany and, thanks to the usual heart before head investments that warp the odds, England.

A repeat of the 2002 Brazil v Germany final was a 14-1 shot but Italy v France was a 50-1 scenario.

Now they are there, the bookies remain a little confused, though heavy backing of Italy since the semi-finals has established them as slight favourites.

Four years ago both teams travelled to Asia with high hopes and short odds but France (3-1 favourites) failed to get out of their group and Italy (5-1) were knocked out in the second round by South Korea.

In contrast a German team thumped 5-1 at home in qualifying by England and condemned by many as the country's worst in living memory defied odds of 20-1 to reach the final.

Likewise Brazil, on the back of losing an unprecedented six qualifiers and friendly defeats by Honduras and Australia, were confidently priced out as 7-1 sixth favourites; a snip as it turned out as they went on to win the title for the fifth time.

REUTERS AY VC1805