Who Will Win Dalits' Votes In Delhi Assembly Polls 2025? Here's What Experts Say

As Delhi prepares for the forthcoming Assembly elections, the Dalit demographic is proving to be a key factor that could sway the outcome, emphasizing the community's increasing determination to support parties that genuinely cater to their needs and ambitions.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), aiming for a third term under Arvind Kejriwal, historically enjoyed strong backing from Dalit voters. However, a sense of dissatisfaction is brewing within the community, potentially dispersing Dalit votes across the AAP, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress.

The BJP, in its strategy to woo Dalit voters, has intensified its campaign efforts in areas with a high Dalit population, complemented by Union Home Minister Amit Shah's controversial remarks on B R Ambedkar in the Rajya Sabha.

This contrasts with the AAP's challenge to keep its Dalit voter base intact amid criticisms of not fulfilling promises like eradicating manual scavenging and bettering conditions for contractual workers, especially in the Valmiki community, despite winning all 12 Scheduled Castes (SCs) reserved seats in the 2020 elections.

Discontent Among Dalit Voters

Speaking to news agency PTI, Kush Ambedkarwadi, an independent political analyst, highlights the growing discontent among Dalit voters towards Kejriwal's administration, pointing to unresolved issues and the loss of influential AAP leaders who represented key Dalit sub-communities. While the AAP has made symbolic overtures towards Dalits, including displaying pictures of Ambedkar and Bhagat Singh in Kejriwal's office and choosing an election symbol that resonates with the community, these gestures have not resulted in substantial improvements in their living conditions.

In Delhi, Dalit voters, who number around 1.23 crore, encompass a broad spectrum of sub-groups, including Chamars, Valmikis, Mallahs, Khatiks, and Kolis. Their significant presence and diversity underscore the potential influence they wield over the election, particularly in the 30-35 constituencies where their numbers are substantial.

Rajendra Pal Gautam, a former AAP minister who has moved to the Congress, conveys a similar perspective of AAP neglecting its foundational promises to the Dalit community. However, he acknowledges that AAP's welfare initiatives still attract some support. On the other hand, both the BJP and Congress are actively making targeted promises, such as educational scholarships and stipends, to entice Dalit voters.

Is Congress Winning Dalits' Votes?

Despite the Congress's efforts to engage the Dalit electorate, Gautam criticizes its delayed and insufficient attempts, highlighting a broader exploration of political alternatives within the community. A survey conducted by the National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organisations (NACDAOR) and The Convergent Media indicates that although AAP continues to lead among Dalit voters in Delhi, its popularity has waned since the 2020 elections.

As the election date draws closer, the dynamics of the Dalit vote are becoming increasingly important, reflecting the community's quest for political representation that genuinely addresses their concerns and aspirations. This electoral battle underscores the critical role of Dalit voters in shaping Delhi's political landscape, marking a period of heightened political engagement and choice within the community.