Delhi Pre-Poll Survey 2025: Can AAP Retain Power In Delhi? Check This Opinion Poll

As Delhi gears up for its upcoming elections on February 5, with results to be declared on February 8, all eyes are on whether the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will secure a third consecutive term or if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or Congress will emerge victorious. Recent pre-poll surveys and predictions have shed some light on the potential outcomes and voter inclinations.

Surveys indicate a favorable lean towards the AAP, with significant support from women and Dalit voters. The C-Voter survey, for instance, suggests that the AAP might dominate the elections, garnering over 51% of the vote share.

Interestingly, this survey, which involved nearly 3,200 participants, found that a substantial number of voters are reluctant to see a change in governance. Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder of the polling agency C-Voter, highlighted the AAP's popularity among women, stating, "80 out of 100 women who voted for the AAP in the 2020 assembly polls may still choose the party this time." He further noted that a majority of women voters who previously supported the Congress are now likely to back the AAP.

The National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organisations (NACDAOR) conducted another survey, focusing on the Dalit community's voting preferences. With over 6,000 participants, this survey found the AAP leading in 35 seats, the BJP in 28, and the Congress in 7, with 44% of Dalit voters favoring the AAP. This reflects the community's broader support for the INDIA bloc, of which both the AAP and Congress are members, despite their separate contest in state elections.

The Phalodi Satta Bazar, known for its election predictions, initially placed the AAP ahead with a majority. However, it recently adjusted its forecast, now estimating the AAP to win between 39 to 41 seats, suggesting a slight increase in support for the incumbent party. The BJP is expected to secure 29 to 31 seats, falling short of the majority mark. Notably, the Satta Bazar made no predictions for the Congress.

Reflecting on the past, the AAP has enjoyed overwhelming success in the previous two Delhi elections, winning 67 seats in 2015 and 62 seats in 2020. The party aims to continue its winning streak, leveraging its track record of delivering key welfare initiatives. Deshmukh commended the AAP's performance, stating, "The AAP has a good track record on delivering freebies in Delhi."