Delhi Elections: Will Tax Cuts Influence Voters In BJP's Favor?

In her Budget 2025 speech on February 1, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a major relief for middle-class taxpayers, stating that income up to ₹12 lakh would be tax-free. This move is expected to boost middle-class spending power and could influence voting patterns in the Delhi Assembly elections 2025 scheduled on February 5.

Political leaders across the spectrum have increasingly focused on middle-class concerns. From President Droupadi Murmu to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal, there has been a noticeable shift in rhetoric. In a notable shift in their speeches, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed hope during the Budget Session that "Maa Lakshmi" (the Hindu goddess of prosperity) would continue to bless India's poor and middle class. Meanwhile, in her address to the Parliament, President Droupadi Murmu referred to the middle class no less than eight times, deviating from the usual focus on the poor in her previous speeches.

On January 23, Kejriwal also unveiled what AAP called its 'middle-class manifesto,' urging the Modi government to raise the tax exemption limit.

Who Does the Middle Class Vote For?

AAP has traditionally appealed to a broad voter base, initially gaining traction among the middle class with its anti-corruption campaign in 2013. Over the years, the party expanded its support among lower-income groups through its free electricity, water, and welfare schemes.

However, BJP has been making inroads. A post-poll survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS reveals that the gap between AAP and BJP among middle-income and lower-income voters has decreased from the 2015 to the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections. While AAP led the BJP by 15% in the 2020 vote share, the margin among middle-class voters was just 6%. Political analysts believe this gap could prove crucial in 2025.

"Relief in tax slabs will undoubtedly influence the Delhi elections. The BJP has been attempting to undermine AAP's reputation for clean governance, and middle-class voters in Delhi have been oscillating between parties. If the current 6% gap shifts in favor of the BJP, AAP may be at risk of defeat," stated political analyst Amitabh Tiwari.

BJP's 'Tax Terrorism': Kejriwal's Counterattack

During a rally on January 29, PM Modi encouraged Delhi voters to give the BJP an opportunity, saying, "You have experienced Congress and AAP for 25 years. Now, please give 'kamal' (lotus) a chance."

Meanwhile, Kejriwal has accused the BJP of "tax terrorism," claiming the middle class is the "most harassed" segment in India. "Fifty percent of their salary goes into taxes. From groceries, milk, curd, popcorn, to even pooja samagri, everything is heavily taxed," he alleged, adding that India's youth are migrating abroad due to economic stress.

While BJP's core voter base-upper-middle-class professionals and traders-remains largely intact, the party's seat count in Delhi has fallen from 32 in 2015 to just 8 in 2020. With tax cuts now in focus, the battle for the middle-class vote in Delhi has intensified.

Delhi votes on February 5, just days after the Budget, with results to be announced on February 8. Will Sitharaman's tax relief boost BJP's chances, or will AAP retain its dominance? The middle class may hold the key to the outcome.