Delhi Elections 2025: AAP Gains Dalit Backing, Congress Eyes BJP’s Share

In the lead-up to the Delhi Assembly elections on February 5, survey results have shed light on Dalit voter preferences in the capital city. Conducted by the National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organisations (NACDAOR) and The Convergent Media, the exercise polled 6,256 individuals across Delhi between January 1 and 15. The results indicate that Dalit voters have given the upper hand to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in a significant 35 seats, followed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 28 seats and the Indian National Congress (Congress) in 7 seats.

According to the survey, 44% of Dalits who were interviewed expressed a preference for the AAP in the upcoming polls, while 32% said they would stick to the BJP and 21% to the Congress. In contrast, 53% of respondents voted for the AAP in the 2020 Assembly elections, 33% for the BJP and 11% for the Congress. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a significant 52% of respondents voted for AAP-Congress candidates, whereas 46% voted for the BJP, as reported by DH.

Given the importance of Dalit votes in the capital, which constitute around 16.7% of overall voters, all three major parties - AAP, BJP, and Congress - are competing for their support. The Congress aims to regain lost ground by focusing on Dalit- and minority-dominated constituencies in Delhi, while the AAP has sought to win over Dalit voters by pledging a housing scheme for sanitation workers, who mainly belong to Scheduled Castes.

According to the survey, a significant 51% of respondents felt that the tenure of the current Delhi Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal, was better than that of his predecessor, Sheila Dikshit, who received an endorsement of 32%. However, the survey also revealed that 39% of respondents attributed pollution in the national capital to the Delhi government's actions. Additionally, 38% of voters believed that the Congress was better equipped to address their concerns compared to the BJP (33%) and the AAP (18%).

At the national level, 38% of respondents viewed Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a popular leader, while 33% preferred Rahul Gandhi from the Congress and 18% preferred Arvind Kejriwal from the AAP. Interestingly, BSP chief Mayawati was considered popular by only 3% of respondents. In the same vein, a minimal 3% of respondents voted for the BSP in the 2020 Assembly elections, while a little over 2% said they would vote for the party this time around.

Among women respondents, Rahul Gandhi received the highest endorsement at 33%, followed closely by Narendra Modi (32%) and Arvind Kejriwal (30%). Mayawati, on the other hand, received just 3% of the votes cast. The survey also revealed that 39% of respondents felt that the I.N.D.I.A. bloc (a proposed alliance of opposition parties) was more friendly to the Dalit community, whereas 25% felt the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) bloc was friendlier. Conversely, 23% of respondents felt that neither the I.N.D.I.A. nor the NDA bloc was supportive of Dalits.