Sea Levels Surge: Mumbai, Chennai, And Kochi Face Coastal Land Submersion Risk By 2040, Study Warns

A recent report by a Bengaluru-based think tank has issued a stark warning about the impact of climate change on India's coastal cities. According to the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), over 10 per cent of Mumbai's land could be submerged by 2040 due to rising sea levels.

The report also highlights that up to 10 per cent of Panaji and Chennai are at risk, with other cities like Kochi, Mangalore, Visakhapatnam, Udupi, and Puri facing potential inundation of up to five per cent of their land.

Analysis Of Sea-Level Surge

The study, titled "Sea Level Rise Scenarios and Inundation Maps for Selected Indian Coastal Cities," analysed sea-level changes under various historical and future climate scenarios across 15 Indian coastal cities. The cities examined include Chennai, Mumbai, Thiruvananthapuram, Kochi, Mangalore, Visakhapatnam, Kozhikode, Haldia, Kanyakumari, Panaji, Puri, Udupi, Paradip, Thoothukudi, and Yanam.

Mumbai Experiences Maximum Sea-Level Increase

The report found that Mumbai has experienced the greatest increase in sea levels, measuring 4.440 centimetres from 1987 to 2021. This is followed by Haldia at 2.726 centimetres, Visakhapatnam at 2.381 centimetres, Kochi at 2.213 centimetres, Paradip at 0.717 centimetres, and Chennai at 0.679 centimetres. The study notes that sea levels are expected to continue rising throughout the century, with Mumbai facing the highest predicted rise.

Future Projections

By 2100, sea levels are projected to increase by 76.2 centimetres in Mumbai, 75.5 centimetres in Panaji, 75.3 centimetres in Udupi, 75.2 centimetres in Mangalore, 75.1 centimetres in Kozhikode, 74.9 centimetres in Kochi, 74.7 centimetres in Thiruvananthapuram, and 74.7 centimetres in Kanyakumari, even under medium-emission scenarios.

Projected Inundation

The report warns that by 2040, over 10 per cent of land in Mumbai, Yanam, and Thoothukudi could be submerged, with five to 10 centimetres of land in Panaji and Chennai, and one to five per cent in Kochi, Mangaluru, Visakhapatnam, Haldia, Udupi, Paradip, and Puri at risk. By 2100, land submergence could be greater in Mangalore, Haldia, Paradip, Thoothukudi, and Yanam compared to Mumbai and Chennai under high-emission scenarios.

Impact On Key Sectors

The report also highlights that this rise in sea levels will affect crucial sectors such as water supply, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, and health. Beaches, backwaters, and mangrove forests are particularly at risk, which could impact both biodiversity and tourism.