Maharashtra Exit Poll Vs Actual Results For Assembly Polls 2024: Who Got It Right?

The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is on track for a sweeping victory in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, with the BJP itself leading in 124 constituencies, marking a gain of 19 seats from its 2019 performance.

Its coalition partners, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP, are leading in 55 and 39 seats, respectively. Meanwhile, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is struggling to make an impact, with Congress leading in 20 seats and both the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar's NCP ahead in just 12 seats each.

The performance of exit polls has once again come under scrutiny. While most exit polls correctly forecasted a BJP-led victory, they failed to anticipate the scale of the Mahayuti's dominance. Notably, predictions by agencies like Chanakya Strategies, Matrize, Peoples Pulse, and Times Now-JVC varied widely, with ranges that broadly favored the ruling alliance.

Axis My India came closest to the actual trends, predicting a range of 178 to 200 seats for the BJP-led coalition. However, others like Poll Diary, P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, and Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra suggested the alliance might struggle to secure a majority, which now appears far from the reality.

Maharashtra Election Predictions

The elections were conducted in a single phase on November 20 across Maharashtra's 288 assembly constituencies. The Mahayuti alliance, led by the BJP, fielded candidates strategically-149 from the BJP, 81 from Shinde's Shiv Sena, and 59 from Ajit Pawar's NCP. Their unified campaign appears to have resonated strongly with voters, delivering what seems to be a decisive mandate. On the opposition side, the MVA coalition, comprising Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar's NCP, attempted to challenge the ruling bloc with a robust candidate slate but has so far failed to garner significant public support.

As the trends solidify, it's clear that the BJP-led Mahayuti has consolidated its position in Maharashtra, underscoring the strength of its alliance and campaign strategy. This victory also marks a significant setback for the MVA, highlighting a shifting political landscape in the state.