Maharashtra Assembly Elections: BJP Top Leadership Puts Devendra Fadnavis For Seat-Sharing Negotiations

The BJP has decided to maintain its alliance with the Ajitar-led NCP, despite reservations from some right-wing groups in Maharashtra. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis confirmed this decision to the RSS during a coordination meeting in Nagpur. Over the past two months, Fadnavis has met with RSS leaders three times to discuss election strategies.

BJP's Role in Mahayuti Alliance

Officially, the BJP will contest the 2024 Assembly elections as part of the Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, NCP, and CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. The BJP has taken a leadership role in preparing for these elections. The party's state core committee has given Fadnavis full authority over seat-sharing decisions after a recent meeting in Mumbai.

The next challenge for the BJP is negotiating seat-sharing with its partners for Maharashtra's 288 Assembly seats, scheduled for October-November. Historically, the undivided Shiv Sena and BJP shared seats through mutual agreement due to their common Hindutva ideology. However, the BJP and NCP have traditionally been rivals.

Challenges in Seat-Sharing Negotiations

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP and NCP were direct competitors in 54 seats across Maharashtra. The BJP won 30 of these seats, while the undivided NCP secured 24. After the NCP split in July 2023, 18 MLAs sided with Ajit Pawar and six with Sharad Pawar's faction. A senior BJP functionary noted that convincing grassroots workers to accept the NCP as a partner would be challenging.

Party insiders highlighted specific constituencies where both sides are likely to contest fiercely. For example, in Indapur, sitting MLA Dattatrey Bharne from NCP faces competition from senior BJP leader Harshvardhan Patil. In Daund, BJP's Rahul Kul narrowly defeated NCP's Ramesh Thorat by 746 votes.

Ajit Pawar began a state-wide yatra on August 8 and emphasized that the NCP would negotiate firmly. "Generally, parties retain sitting MLAs' seats," he said. "In other cases, negotiations consider various factors."

Confidence Amidst Tough Bargains

State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule expressed confidence that seat division would be resolved through top-level discussions. "Every party tries to enhance its electoral fortunes and strives for hard bargains," Bawankule stated. "We must adopt a pragmatic approach to ensure allies are not antagonised while maintaining our party's status."

Currently, Mahayuti allies hold 187 MLAs in the House. For the remaining 101 seats, tough negotiations are expected as each party aims to secure its interests. According to BJP poll strategists, criteria for seat-sharing include retaining sitting seats, considering constituencies where a party is second, and evaluating winnability along with organisational strength.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP won 105 seats with a 25.75% vote share. The undivided Shiv Sena won 56 seats with a 16.41% vote share as a pre-poll ally of the BJP. The undivided NCP secured 54 seats with a 16.71% vote share while its ally Congress won 44 seats with a 15.97% vote share.

Following the split in NCP, Ajit Pawar's faction retained support from 42 MLAs while Sharad Pawar's faction was left with just 12 MLAs.

The upcoming elections will test this new alliance structure and how well they can navigate internal challenges and external competition.