Maha Vikas Aghadi's Influence On Dalit Votes Shifts Dynamics In Maharashtra Elections

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) opposition's claims of a 'threat to the Constitution and reservation' impacted the BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP's Maha Yuti alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra.

Analysis of the state's 48 Lok Sabha seats reveals a significant shift of Dalit (Scheduled Caste-SC) votes towards the MVA.

Photo Credit: PTI

To prevent a similar outcome in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, the ruling Maha Yuti alliance, led by Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis from BJP, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde from Shiv Sena, and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar from NCP, has been actively working to address Dalit concerns.

In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the MVA secured 30 seats in Maharashtra, while the Maha Yuti managed only 17. The remaining seat went to a candidate backed by the opposition alliance.

The INDIA Bloc, led by Congress, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar's NCP (SCP), effectively leveraged the 'threat to the Constitution and reservation' narrative.

This fear was deeply rooted among Dalit voters, resulting in MVA winning 51 out of 88 Assembly constituencies where Dalits make up over 15% of the population. Meanwhile, Maha Yuti led in just 32 seats.

Despite Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi's presence in this Lok Sabha election, concerns about 'changing the Constitution and ending reservation' were so prevalent that MVA emerged victorious while VBA lost ground.

BJP-Shiv Sena alliance had previously dominated these constituencies during the 2019 Assembly elections, winning 46 seats compared to Congress and NCP's 33.

Post-Lok Sabha elections, Maha Yuti has intensified efforts to regain its influence among Dalit voters.

According to the 2011 census, Scheduled Castes (SC) make up about 12% of Maharashtra's population, comprising around 59 different castes. Among these, castes like Mahar have advanced politically, educationally, and economically. Other smaller Dalit castes lag behind Mahars.

The ruling alliance is now focusing on smaller Dalit castes by advocating for sub-categorisation within Scheduled Castes following a Supreme Court order. Interestingly, influential Dalit castes like Mahar oppose this move. The Matang community, less influenced by Ambedkarism and more connected to Hindu culture, hasn't benefited as much from their Dalit status compared to Ambedkarites.

The Maha Yuti alliance has introduced schemes like Chief Minister Ladki Bahin alongside sub-categorisation efforts to benefit smaller Dalit castes. These communities hope for a quota within a quota if sub-categorisation occurs. On October 15, just before election dates were announced, a one-member committee led by retired High Court judge Anant Badar was formed to examine this issue.

Impact on Non-Ambedkarite Dalits

Siddhant Waghamare, a political activist and Dalit entrepreneur from Aurangabad, shared insights with Indian Express: "The political scenario among Dalit voters is unstable....The more vocal and politically aware Ambedkarites are strongly opposing the BJP, while a significant section of the Dalit community may respond to the incentives being offered by the party."

"Whether the BJP can secure these non-Ambedkarite Dalit votes in its favour will ultimately determine the outcome of this election."

The ongoing efforts by Maha Yuti aim to address concerns among non-Ambedkarite Dalits who feel left behind compared to Ambedkarite communities.

By focusing on sub-categorisation and targeted schemes, they hope to regain support from these groups ahead of upcoming elections.